18 Oct: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities

By | October 18, 2017

 

S&P: 2557
Preferred Strategy: The S+P had a tight session close to the all-time high. Further gains look likely although I prefer not to be involved. For those who do, looking to buy dips seems to be the plan although note that the daily charts do suggest that we are getting close to a topping scenario.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2575 Minor 2552 Session low
2570 Minor 2546 14 Oct low/12 Oct low
2565 Minor 2534 5 Oct low
2560 Minor 2530 Minor
2557 16 Oct high    – all-time high 2525 (23.6% of 2445/2550)


DJI: 22963
Preferred Strategy: The DJI made an all time high close today with the physical index breaking 23000 for the first time. As with the S+P, the daily charts are now becoming overbought and a correction looks overdue. Stand aside.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23150 Minor 22885 Session low
23100 Minor 22777 14 Oct low
23050 Minor 22679 6 Oct low
23000 Minor 22594 5 Oct low
22970 Session high –all-time high 22500 3 Oct low/27 Sept low


ASX SPI: 5865
Preferred Strategy: The ASX had another strong session, marking 9 positive days in a row, which has not happened for years. The 4 hour momentum indicators are at overbought extremes and seem to be topping out but the dailies are pointing strongly higher, so looking to buy dips towards 5820 seems to be the plan
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
5931 3 May high 5815 16 Oct low
5925 Minor 5800 Minor
5913 11 May high 5770 14 Oct low
5900 Minor 5741 12 Oct low
5879 Session high 5715 11 Oct low


XAUUSD: 1285
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains heavy as the dollar finds new strength and the 4 hour charts look as though a test of 1270 may lie ahead. The dailies though are neutral and over the next couple of days it looks as though we may end up chopping around near current levels. Stand aside.
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1320 (61.8% of 1357/1261) 1282 Session low
1315 20 Sept high 1275 100 DMA
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1270 Minor
1306 16 Oct high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1296 Session high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA


XAGUSD: 17.03
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold.
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.95 13 Sept high 17.10 16 Oct low
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.96 Session low
17.65 Minor 16.90 (50% of 16.32/17.41)
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.77 (61.8% of 16.32/17.41)
17.46 16 Oct high 16.70 Minor


WTI: 51.90
Preferred Strategy: WTI closed towards the session high of 52.22 and looks as though it is about to nudge the long term trend resistance at 52.50. A break of this would then allow the long awaited run to 55.00 and possibly on to 60.00 although this currently remains over the horizon. On the downside,  minor support arrives at 51.00 ahead of the more substantial 50.00, where the rising trend support now lies.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bullish
Resistance Support
53.73 9 April high 51.19 Session low
52.83 28 Sept high 50.68 14 Oct low
52.55 Descending trend resistance 50.13 12 Oct low
52.34 16 Oct high 49.50 Minor
52.22 Session high 49.11/07 9 Oct low/6 Oct low