16 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices.

By | October 16, 2017

 

S&P: 2552
Preferred Strategy: It was a 5th straight week of gains for the US markets and it looks as though there is more to come although I prefer not to be involved. For those who do, looking to buy dips seems to be the plan although note that the daily chart, below, does suggest that we are getting close to a topping scenario.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bullish?
Resistance Support
2575 Minor 2546 Friday low/12 Oct low
2570 Minor 2534 5 Oct low
2565 Minor 2530 Minor
2560 Minor 2525 (23.6% of 2445/2550)
2555 12 Oct high/11 Oct high    – all-time high 2520 Minor


DJI: 22824
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bullish?
Resistance Support
23050 Minor 22777 Friday low
23000 Minor 22679 6 Oct low
22950 Minor 22594 5 Oct low
22900 Minor 22550 Minor
22850 Friday high  – all-time high 22500 3 Oct low/27 Sept low


ASX SPI: 5804
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The ASX had another positive session on Friday, closing just above 5800 and it looks as though we could see further minor gains today, although the 4 hour charts are now at overbought extremes and may slow any positive momentum.  The dailies are turning higher though, and dips towards 5780 ([email protected]) may be a buying opportunity, looking for a run up to the 16 May high of 5873.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
5900 Minor 5770 Friday low
5873 16 May high 5741 12 Oct low
5850 Minor 5715 11 Oct low
5835 Minor 5698 10 Oct low
5808 Friday high/23 May high 5659 6 Oct low


XAUUSD: 1303
Preferred Strategy: Gold had a decent squeeze up to 1303 on Friday, where it closed the week, and looks as though it is set to trade higher still, with decent resistance lying at 1315/20. Support will arrive at the minor rising trend support, currently at 1292. For now, buying dips with a SL sub 1290 seems to be the plan.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
1335 (76.4% of 1357/1261) 1290 Friday low
1320 (61.8% of 1357/1261) 1284 11 Oct low
1315 20 Sept high 1270 100 DMA
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1303 Friday high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA


XAGUSD: 17.40
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. Silver also had a good day on Friday, reaching 17.41 and closing on its highs. Further gains seem possible and a break of 17.50 would seem to suggest a run towards 15.65/75. Minor support should now arrive at 17.15/20,m so buying dips with a SL sub 17.00 may be the plan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.95 13 Sept high 17.18 Friday low ((23.6% of 16.32/17.41) )
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 17.05 11 Oct low
17.65 Minor 16.77 9 Oct low
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.70 200 HMA
17.40 Friday high 16.50 Minor


WTI: 51.40
Preferred Strategy: WTI settled at a two-week high on Friday, as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East raised the threat of supply disruptions, particularly in the wake of Donald Trump’s refusal to certify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal. We are now back in the middle of the previous range, where 52.83 is the top, with support seen at 49.10. The charts are mixed/neutral and so some choppy trade looks likely in the short term.

Further out, I still think we will eventually see a move back to 55.00 and higher although this could take a while and OPEC needs to extend its agreement to reduce oil output beyond its current March 2018 expiry date in order to rebalance the market in order to make any upside progress. in the meantime, today, something like  51.00/52.75 may cover it.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
53.00 Minor 50.68 Friday low
52.83 28 Sept high 50.13 12 Oct low
52.55 Descending trend resistance 49.50 Minor
51.95 (76.4% of 52.83/49.07) 49.11/07 9 Oct low/6 Oct low
51.70 Friday high 48.35 (61.8% of 45.55/52.83)