17 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 17, 2017

 

S&P: 2457
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Mildly Bullish

Friday’s soft US data saw US equities reach new highs, with the S+P closing at just under the new peak of 2460. With the momentum indicators generally aligning higher further gains would now seem likely as we head towards 2500. Personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these giddy levels.

Resistance Support
2480 Minor 2450 Minor
5475 Minor 2441 Friday low
2470 Minor 2433 (23.6% of 2345/2460)
2465 Minor 2422 12 July low
2460 Friday high  –All-time high 2402 31 May low /30 June low


DJI: 21602
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Mildly Bullish

Ditto S+P. The DJI made another new all-time high on Friday and the momentum indicators now look increasing constructive, hinting at a move towards 22000. I remain neutral/mildly bullish at these levels but there are easier things to trade.

Resistance Support
21800 Minor 21530 Minor
21750 Minor 21468 Friday low
21700 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21650 Minor 21250 Minor
21626 Friday high  – all-time high 21180 (38.2% of 20474/21626)


ASX SPI: 5704
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Prefer to buy dips

The ASX SPI moved up to a high of 5729 on Friday before settling at 5705, and with the momentum indicators looking mixed a neutral stance is wise on Monday. As before, the 100 DMA/200 DMA resistance/support levels continue to largely contain the price action and this seems set to continue early in the week, possibly while waiting on tomorrow’s RBA Minutes.

More choppy trade looks likely today, although the 4 hour charts actually point a little higher again, possibly to retest 5730, above which could then see 5745 and the 100 DMA at 5765. I doubt that we head much above here but If wrong, look for a run towards 5800. The longer term charts still look a little doubtful on the topside, and back below 5700 would find minor support at 5675/80, at 5650/55 and then at the 200 DMA. The preference is mildly to buy dips towards 5680, with a SL placed under 5650.

Resistance Support
5780 Minor 5685 200 HMA
5765 100 DMA 5677 Friday low
5745 4 July high 5654 13 July low
5729 Friday high 5638 200 DMA
5715 Minor 5607 12 July low


XAUUSD: 1228
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral- Possibly Mildly Bullish. Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips

Gold was volatile on Friday, initially drifting down to 1215 ahead of the US data which caused a spike to 1233, before settling at 1228. The price action now seems a little more positive and for the time being, trading from the long side appears to be mildly favoured, mainly on the back of the chance of a softer US$ down the track. 1220 should provide the support for Monday, with a SL placed below Friday’s low. There is plenty of resistance ahead so I would not be looking for too much and 1233 may again cap it although a break could see a run into the 1240/50 area.

Resistance Support
1250 (50% of 1295/1208) 1220 200 HMA
1247 100 DMA 1215 Friday low
1241 (38.2% of 1295/1208) 1205/08 11 July low/10 July low /(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1233 200 WMA/Friday high 1195 10 March low
1229 200 DMA 1188 (61.8% pivot of 1122/1295)


XAGUSD: 15.87
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Having dipped to 15.60 on Friday, Silver then rallied sharply back to 16.08 following the US data, before settling the week at 15.90 and leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged. The momentum indicators are flat/mixed and further choppy trade would seem to lie ahead and, for the time being, using Friday’s range would seem to have it covered.

Further out, the downside looks well protected below 15.45 while the topside has decent resistance at 16.20/35. .Sidelined.

Resistance Support
16.35 Descending trend resistance 15.85 200 HMA
16.22 5 July high 15.60 Friday low
16.17 7 July high 15.46 11 July low
16.08 Friday high 15.35 Minor
16.00 Pivot 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 46.65
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral

WTI reached a peak of 46.71 on Friday  and closed at the highs, underpinned by lower U.S. stockpiles, a slight slowdown in U.S. crude production and signs of increased Chinese demand,

The choppy conditions look set to continue but the momentum indicators do seem to point to further gains ahead, and buying dips is currently preferred. Above 46.70, we could then revisit 47.20, beyond which would open the way to 47.85 and then to 48.15/35. On the downside, support will be seen at 46.00 and at 45.75, below which looks unlikely to Monday. If wrong, look for a run back to 45.00 and below that we could revisit levels of sub 44.00 although this now seems unlikely for a while.

Resistance Support
48.37 6 June high 46.00 Minor
48.15 (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 45.77 Friday low
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 44.96 13 July low
47.21 5 July high 43.81 11 July low
46.70 Friday high 43.63 10 July low