17 Nov: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | November 17, 2017


S&P: 2586
Preferred Strategy: US Stocks headed higher following the tax bill vote with the S+P now back at 2587, just below the all-time high of 2594.

The 2555/65 support area continues to hold and has today allowed a decent bounce, with the 4 hour charts looking positive.

As we said before, while a test of 2600 should not be ruled out, the longer-term indicators do look a bit toppish, so I am rather wary of being long at these levels. Asbefore, I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels although at this stage there is little sign of a significant turnaround to the longer term uptrend.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2610 Minor 2580 200 HMA
2605 Minor 2562 Session low
2600 14 Nov high 2555 15 Nov low
2594 9 Nov high  – all-time high 2550 (23.6% of 2421/2594)
2589 Session high 2541 25 Oct low

DJI: 23436
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23700 Minor 23243 Session low
23650 Minor 23198 25 Oct low
23600 Minor 23150 Minor
23555 7 Nov high – all-time high 23085 (23.6% of 21578/23555)
23462 Session high 23000 Minor

ASX SPI: 5989
Preferred Strategy: The ASX SPI200 headed up from a low of 5927 to a high of 5995, and having closed nearby it would seem that another test of 6000+ is fairly imminent.

The 4 hour indicators suggest further near term gains are possible, where 6000 would provide decent resistance,, but above which could see a return to the recent 6046 high

The dailies are turning to point lower though and it the US indices head in the same direction, then another test of the downside may be on the cards, where 5980 and 5950 will provide minor support ahead of the 5927 session low.

In the longer term, the weeklies s till point higher and If we do carry on above the recent  6044 high, there seems to be little to stop the SPI reaching 6102, which would close a major chart gap from Dec 2007

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
6050 Minor 5975 Minor
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5950 Minor
6025 Minor 5927 Session low
6000 Psychological 5907 2 Nov low
5994 Session high 5885 (38.2% of 5626/6046)

XAUUSD: 1279
Preferred Strategy: Gold had another choppy session, (1275/81) leaving the outlook unchanged.

As before, the broad 1265/85 range remains intact, and with the momentum indicators looking neutral we might expect more of the same today, with direction dependent on the dollar/US yields.

A weaker US$ would potentially see gold head back above the 1290 high towards 1300/10, although the momentum indicators are now fairly flat.  If we see the dollar regain its recent losses, we could then see a return to 1260/70, where strong support lies but below which would open up 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1276 100 DMA/15 Nov low
1296 17 Oct high 1269 14 Nov low
1291 20 Oct high 1266 6 Nov low
1289 15 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1280 200 HMA 1251 8 Aug low/Rising trend support

XAGUSD: 17.08
Preferred Strategy: Silver remains choppy, within its recent range and seems set to continue to be so.

Both the short term and the daily momentum indicators are neutral, so more of the same could be in store and the 16.80/17.25 area seems to still have it covered.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.96 15 Nov low /Session low
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.90/87 100 WMA /14 Nov low
17.27 20 Oct high/19 Oct high /200 WMA 16.80/78 10 Nov low/6 Nov low/3 Nov low
17.25 8 Nov high 16.66/63 1 Nov low/31 Oct low
17.12 Session high 16.60 27 Oct low/(76.4% of 16.32/17.41)

WTI: 55.11
Preferred Strategy: WTI had a neutral session (54.91/55.59)

With the short term momentum indicators looking a little more positive we could see further minor gains today, with minor resistance to be seen at the session high, ahead of 56.20 and 56.75.

The dailies looking toppish though, and further downside momentum seems likely in the days ahead, with the 4 hour charts now seemingly building a bear flag, with an objective of roughly 53.20 where a Fibo level lies, but as long as we stay above the rising trend support at 52.50, I prefer to look for areas to buy dips. In the meantime, look for support levels at 54.75, 54.50 and 53.15.

In the bigger picture the weeklies remain positive. Major Fibo resistance lies at 57.15 (38.2% of 107.65/26.03) but having briefly moved up to 57.89 last week, this will act as strong resistance ahead of the chance of a test of equally strong resistance, the 200 WMA at 59.00. Above here 60.00 would seem a short step away although that is well over the horizon right now.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Cautiously Bullish – but prefer to buy dips  towards 53.00/50. SL sub 52.50.
Resistance Support
57.89 8 Nov high 54.91 Session low
57.13 13 Nov high 54.75/79 (23.6% of 45.56/57.89) 14 Nov low
56.75 14 Nov high 54.10 (23.6% of 42.03/57.89)
56.20 Minor 53.74 30 Oct low
55.59 Session high 53.15 (38.2% of 45.56/57.58)