17 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

By | October 17, 2017

 

 

EURUSD: 1.1795
Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd was choppy but has finished the day looking a little bit heavy, closing towards the bottom end of the day’s 1.1780/1.1820 range. The ZEW, EU CPI and the US Industrial Production will be the drivers today, but with the short term momentum indicators looking a bit soft we might expect further downside momentum, possibly towards 1.1700.  The topside looks capped at 1.1820 and selling rallies is preferred. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1820. SL @ 1.1865, TP @ 1.1720.
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
1.1920 Descending trend resistance 1.1779 Session low
1.1879/82 12 Oct high/(50% of 1.2092/1.1669) 1.1750 (61.8% of 1.1668/1.1880)
1.1874/70 14 Oct high/Neckline resistance 1.1720 (76.4% of 1.1668/1.1880)
1.1840 Minor 1.1700 Minor
1.1819 Session high 1.1661 17 Aug low

Economic data highlights will include:                                      

German Wage Price Index, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU CPI, US Import/Export Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, NAHB Housing Market Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory .



USDJPY: 112.20
Preferred Strategy:  The dollar traded down to Friday’s lows, today reaching 111.64, before bouncing strongly on news that the supposedly hawkish John Taylor had a positive interview with Donald trump regarding the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy. Currently near session highs of 112.28, the short term momentum indicators now appear set to allow further dollar gains, where 112.75 would be the first real hurdle ahead of 113.00, and 113.43 (6 Oct high). Good support now seen at 111.60/70, and buying dips is preferred today. Further out, the dailies look less positive, so further range trade between 112.00/113.00 may be in store. Buy US$Jpy @ 111.85. SL @ 111.45, TP @ 112.75
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral – Mildly Bearish?
Resistance Support
113.20 Minor 111.64 Session low
113.00 Minor 111.46 25 Sept low
112.74 9 Oct high 111.30 Minor
112.51 12 Oct high 111.10 (38.2% of 107.32/113.43) /100 DMA
112.28 Session high 110.80 Minor


GBPUSD: 1.3251
Preferred Strategy:  GbpUsd is heavy at the end of Monday trade, weighed down by the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations (offsetting any positive outlook from a potential UK rate hike), and with the short term momentum indicators pointing lower a test of 1.3200, and lower, may be in store. Selling rallies with a SL placed above 1.3310 is preferred.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.3415 (61.8% of 1.3656/1.3026) 1.3224 Session low
1.3340 (50% of 1.3656/1.3026) 1.3195 200 HMA
1.3337 14 Oct high/100 WMA 1.3150 Minor
1.3311 Session high 1.3120 12 Oct low
1.3290 Minor 1.3100 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

UK CPI, PPI, RPI



USDCHF: 0.9755
Preferred Strategy:  US$Chf was choppy on Monday and remains within the 0.9700/0.9800 range and looks likely to continue to do so on Tuesday given the neutral look of the momentum indicators. I still prefer to be long dollars, in looking for an eventual trade above 0.9800/30, but it is a frustrating trade and needs to make a move soon or it could roll over and head back towards 0.9675. Neutral.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
0.9850 200 WMA 0.9729 Session low
0.9835 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high 0.9715 Minor
0.9807 9 Oct high 0.9705 14 Oct low
0.9789 10 Oct high 0.9676 2 Oct low (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9836) /
0.9770 14 Oct high 0.9642 25 Sept low


AUDUSD: 0.7850
Preferred Strategy:  AudUsd has drifted slowly lower through the day, unable to hang on to Friday’s gains, and the short term momentum indicators suggest that we may head lower again through the coming session although the RBA Minutes will be the arbiter of that.  Trading from the short side, selling near term rallies is preferred, with a SL placed above 0.7890, but looking for a run down to the 100 DMA. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7865. SL @0.7895, TP @ 0.7800
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7960 (61.8 of 0.8102/0.7732) 0.7842 Session low
0.7940 Minor 0.7830 Minor
0.7915 (50% pivot of 0.8102/0.7732) 0.7816 14 Oct low
0.7897 14 Oct high 0.7795 100 DMA
0.7889 Session high 0.7770 11 Oct low

Economic data highlights will include:                                      

WBC Leading Economic Index New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes



NZDUSD: 0.7170
Preferred Strategy:  After having traded a tight 30 point range on Monday, the Kiwi is now waiting on the NZ CPI figure and then later in the day, the Global Dairy Trade Index.  The charts are mixed, with the dailies still looking positive, although the short term momentum indicators have begun to turn lower. Stay neutral for now but overall I still prefer to sell rallies, today with a SL placed tight above 0.7200, but looking for a break below the 200 DMA (0.7155) towards 0.7100.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7290 (61.8% of 0.7434/0.7058) 0.7155 200 DMA
0.7245 (50% of 0.7434/0.7058) 0.7120 14 Oct low
0.7215 Minor 0.7100 Minor
0.7200 (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7058) 0.7077 12 Oct low
0.7195 Session high /14 Oct high 0.7055 10 Oct low

Economic data highlights will include:

NZ CPI (Q3), Global Dairy Trade Index