17 Oct: US$ slightly firmer ahead of inflation data today, due from NZ, UK, EU. RBA Minutes coming up.

By | October 17, 2017

 

The US$ was rather mixed on Monday despite some upbeat economic data and some hawkish Fed comments although it generally has a bid tone heading into the end of the session. The NY Empire State Manufacturing index jumped to 30.2 in October, up from 24.4, easily beating the expectation of 20.7, to make the highest reading in three years. Also of note was the Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren who sounded rather hawkish in an interview, by hinting that the Fed will need to hike interest rate December and then three to four times “over the course of next year”. In other markets, US stocks ground to their daily new all-time highs, while Oil headed higher as well, on the back of the tensions between Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Gold headed lower, unable to hold on above 1300.

Tuesday will kick off with the Q3 NZ CPI (exp 0.4%mm/1.8%qq) and the Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales, ahead of the RBA Minutes, which may provide the Aud$ with some volatility. Later on, in Europe, the UK CPI (0.3mm%/3.0%mm), PPI, RPI, which will be closely watched for any hint as to whether the BOE are likely to hike rates, next month. The EU CPI (0.4mm%/1.5%mm, Core 0.4%mm, 1.1%yy) is also due, which traders will watch closely, while from the US the data is mostly secondary, including the Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index and a speech from the Fed’s Harker. Oil traders will watch the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory while the Kiwi will look to the Global Dairy Trade Index for guidance. The ECBs Constancio and Praet will be speaking, as will the BOE’s Carney.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1796
Res  1.1820  1.1845  1.1875
Sup  1.1780  1.1750  1.1720
USDJPY: 112.18
Res  112.30  112.50  112.75
Sup  112.00  111.65  111.45
GBPUSD: 1.3253
Res  1.3290  1.3310  1.3340
Sup  1.3225  1.3150  1.3195
USDCHF: 0.9755
Res  0.9770  0.9805  0.9835
Sup  0.9730  0.9705  0.9685
AUDUSD: 0.7850
Res  0.7865  0.7895  0.7915
Sup  0.7845  0.7820  0.7800
NZDUSD: 0.7170
Res  0.7195  0.7215  0.7245
Sup  0.7145  0.7120  0.7090
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2555
Res  2560  2565  2570
Sup  2545  2550  2540
DJI: 22894
Res  22910  22950  23000
Sup  22850  22800  22750
ASX SPI: 5840
Res  5850  5870  5885
Sup  5815  5800  5785
XAUUSD: 1295
Res  1300  1305  1310
Sup  1290  1285  1280
XAGUSD: 17.23
Res  17.35  17.50  17.65
Sup  17.10  16.95  16.75
WTI: 51.86
Res  52.30  52.85  53.75
Sup  51.10  50.45  49.70