18 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 18, 2019

Markets have been pretty much static again on Wednesday as traders begin to wind up ahead of Easter. Most products are relatively unchanged although, in the FX space, weakness in the Chf is apparent, while the CNY is stronger after yesterday’s solid Chinese data. Otherwise there is little change although the US stock indices are about to give the rising trend support a bit of a nudge, with the momentum indicators hinting at a near term top.

EurUsd:  EurUsd is pretty much unchanged after another rangebound session either side of 1.1300. Having reached the H/S target again today, the Euro has again been unable to break through to the topside, and the pair continues to consolidate close to 1.1300. While the daily momentum indicators still look mildly supportive, a break of the 1.1320/25 resistance is needed to see a run towards 1.1345 (100 DMA/61.8% of 1.1447/1.1182) and 1.1385 (76.4%). On the downside, below the Wednesday low/200 HMA at 1.1280 would find support at 1.1250/45 and then at the 1.1230 spike low seen last Wednesday after the ECB meeting. Below there, decent support would again be seen at 1.1200/10. Only a break of 1.1175 would renew the downside pressure, for a run towards targets likely to be at 1.1125 (20 June 2017 low), and eventually at 1.1100 and 1.1065. Right now, a neutral stance is required as liquidity thins out towards Easter.

AudUsd:  spiked to a high of 0.7205 after yesterday’s China data but has been unable to carry on and is now back at 0.7175, leaving the outlook unchanged. All up, the choppy consolidation continues and the technical points remain unchanged. On the topside, resistance will still be seen at the 200 DMA, 0.7195 and then at 0.72005/6 (Session/21 Feb high) above which could then see a run towards 0.7225 (76.4% of 0.7295/0.7002) and eventually to 07265 (5 Feb high) and even to 0.7295(31 Jan high). Downside support will again arrive at 0.7140/50 (200 HMA) ahead of 0.7100/0.7090, below which would open the way to the rising trend support at 0.7075. A neutral stance seems wise. Note that the Australian jobs numbers are coming up.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi fell sharply to 0.6665 following yesterday’s NZ inflation data although it was not there long and is now back at 0.6725, once again hugging the 200 DMA at 0.6730. A neutral stance is probably best today and a rangebound day within 0.6700/50 seems likely. Above 0.6750 would open the way to 0.6780, above which more distant targets would be 0.6798 (38.2% of 0.6938/0.6713) and then 0.6826 (50%). The downside would eventually look at the 0.6665 low, below which opens the way to 0.6630, albeit not for a while.

US$Jpy: had another neutral session on Tuesday, using 112.00 as a pivot, where it is currently trading in early Thursday Asian trade. The 200 WMA is at 112.05 and a sustained break of this is needed to push on towards 112.50/60 and then to 113.05 (61.8% of 118.61/104.01). If risk sentiment were to deteriorate, then we are likely to see a return back below the Monday low of 111.88, towards 111.50 (200 HMA) and to 111.00. Below this would open 110.80/75 – 100 WMA/ (50% pivot of 109.70/111.82) and possibly 110.50 (61.8%).

On the crosses, AudJpy still looks underpinned after having made a new 4 month high on Wednesday at 80.71, and is now trading just above the 200 DMA. This will continue to act as magnate ahead of Easter, I suspect, but the daily/weekly charts are looking more positive, and  a break would open the way to 81.00 and possibly to 81.90 (50% pivot of 90.30/68.50 (flash-crash low)). Keep SL below 80.00 or for more adventurous traders, below 79.15 (100 DMA)

EurJpy is still consolidating its gains below last Friday’s high of high 126.76. This level is strong and will not be easily overcome, being the 200 WMA. However, a break would target 127.50 ahead of 127.90/128.00.  The cross looks positive on the charts and buying dips seems to be the idea. SL; below 126.00

In other crosses, AudNzd still looks firm in the medium term, targeting 1.0700 and eventually towards 1.0780/1.0800. EurChf has broken downtrend resistance and is currently at a Fibo level (1.1360: 23.6% of 1.2005/1.1161), a break of which could see a run towards 1.1444 (5 Feb high) and then towards 1.1485 (38.2%).

The most interesting charts are still in Gold and Silver where,  as we said before, where the possibility of a head/shoulder top remains in place with good potential downside momentum for both.  The neckline for Gold has now broken and the target is seen at 1218.  A daily close back above 1290 would now negate the idea.  If the neckline for Silver were to break, the downside potential is at around 13.85oz.

Stocks: had another neutral session and the short term medium term momentum indicators look increasingly negative for both the S+P and the DJI, although the weeklies remain positive. While the all-time-high targets are in sight, in the S+P at 2940 and in the DJI at 26950, the dailies are showing a degree of bearish divergence and we need to hold above rising trend support in order to maintain the upside momentum, these now being close by, at 2900 and at 26340. The S+P actually appears to be breaking lower at the start of Thursday trade, so be nimble!

WTI: is 0.9% lower on Thursday and the dailies may be showing signs of a top, although the weeklies remain positive. A cautious stance is therefore required but the uptrend will remain intact as long as the uptrend support at 61.25 holds – and this roughly ties in with the 200 DMA. Resistance is seen immediately ahead, at 64.40/80, but above 65.00 would then allow for an acceleration higher and a run towards the next major target, seen at 66.80 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03) and then at 68.00. This is unlikely any time soon although as we said previously, the S/H/S target is at 70.00.  Below 61.25 would allow for a run back to 60.00, albeit I prefer to buy dips, but with a tight SL in place.


*Trade of the day: April 18, 2019; 6:45 AM(AET)                               

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1325. SL @ 1.1350, TP @ 1.1225

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1245. SL @ 1.1215, TP @ 1.1325

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7205. SL @ 0.7235, TP @ 0.7150

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7140. SL @ 0.7120, TP @ 0.7220

Sell Gold @ 1285. SL @ 0.1297, TP @ 1260