18 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 18, 2017

 

S&P: 2683
The S&P is at new all-time highs of 2682 at the end of the week and seems set for further gains if the tax bill can be passed ahead of the New Year. With the momentum indicators now generally aligned to the topside, a continuation towards 2700 may be on the cards.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2660. I prefer to stand aside.
Resistance Support
2705 Minor 2675 Minor
2700 Minor 2670 Minor
2690 Minor 2660 Minor
2685 Minor 2652 Friday low
2682 Friday high    – all-time high 2650 Minor


DJI: 24683
Ditto S+P.  Leave a SL below 24400.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Buy dips?
Resistance Support
24900 Minor 24536 Friday low
24850 Minor 24475 Minor
24800 Minor 24400 Minor
24750 Minor 24330 Minor
24700 Friday high   – all-time high 24300 Minor


ASX SPI: 6030
The ASX remained within its recent range on Friday (5992/6041) and more of the same looks likely for Monday. The dailies are trying to turn higher but without conviction so at this stage a cautious stance is required.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators possibly looking mildly constructive, another test of 0.6045 may be on the cards, above which there is a chart gap to the December 2007 low of 6102 (Monthly Chart – below).  That remains some way off and we may see a similar 6005/6030 range today, with further bids at 5970/5950.
Resistance Support
6120 Minor 6025 100 HMA
6102 Dec 2007 low 6005 200 HMA
6080 Minor 5992 Friday low
6066 14 Dec high 5975 Minor
6041 Friday high 5962 (23.6% of 5625/6062)


XAUUSD: 1255
Gold is finding some stability above 1250 after trading another tight range of 1251/61 on Friday.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Possible basing formation Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The momentum indicators look inconclusive and a cautious stance is required on Monday. Good support lies at 1337/40 while offers line up above 1260, so use this as a range guide.

Sell Gold @ 1250. SL @ 1270, TP @ 1230

Resistance Support
1285 Minor 1253 Friday low
1277 4 Dec high /5 Dec high 1240 14 Dec low
1269 6 Dec high 1238/37 (50% pivot of 1122/1357)  / 12 Dec low
1263 200 DMA 1232 200 WMA
1261 Friday high 1220 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.03
As with Gold, Silver found some stability on Friday and closed back at 16.00 after a tight 15.90/16.07 range
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower  – Possible basing formation Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look mildly positive and we could see a squeeze back to 16.15/30 but selling rallies is still preferred, looking for an eventual move towards 15.20 and possibly to 14.80. Currently sitting on the 200 MMA, this could continue to act as a magnate in the short term.

Sell Silver @ 16.25. SL @ 16.40, TP @ 15.40

Resistance Support
16.70 (61.8% of 17.38/15.61) 15.90 Friday low
16.50 (50% of 17.38/15.61) 15.80 200 MMA
16.30 (38.2% of 17.38/15.61) 15.66/61 14 Dec low/12 Dec low
16.15 14 Dec high 15.50 Minor
16.08 Friday high 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 57.32
WTI settled at 57.30 after a tight 56.92 range on Friday, with further sideways trade looking likely at the start of the week.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  While retaining an overall neutral stance while we chop around in the 56.00/58.00 range the dailies do still look heavy so selling into strength with a SL above the recent 59.02 high may be the plan.
Resistance Support
59.02 24 Nov high 56.92 Friday low
58.86 1 Dec high 56.07 14 Dec low
58.30 200 WMA 55.79 7 Dec low
57.80 14 Dec high 55.00 Minor
56.92 Friday high 54.80 14 Nov high