18 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 18, 2017

 

S&P: 2459
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The S+P had a quiet day just below Friday’s new peak of 2460, leaving the outlook unchanged. With the daily momentum indicators aligning slightly higher further gains would eventually seem likely although the short term charts are now neutral and another rangebound session would not surprise. Personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2480 Minor 2453 Session low
5475 Minor 2441 14 July low
2470 Minor 2433 (23.6% of 2345/2460)
2465 Minor 2422 12 July low
2460 Session high /14 July high  –All-time high 2402 31 May low /30 June low


DJI: 21585
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Ditto S+P.

Resistance Support
21800 Minor 21559 Session low
21750 Minor 21468 14 July low
21700 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21650 Minor 21250 Minor
21626 14 July high  – all-time high 21180 (38.2% of 20474/21626)


ASX SPI: 5698
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The ASX had a choppy session (5678/5721), closing the day at 5700.

More choppy trade looks likely today although the daily charts point a little higher again, possibly to retest 5730, above which could then see 5745 and the 100 DMA at 5765. I doubt that we head much above here but if wrong, look for a run towards 5800. The short term charts look more neutral today, and back below 5700 would find support once again at 5675/80, at 5650/55 and then at the 200 DMA at 5635. A neutral stance seems wise today.

Resistance Support
5780 Minor 5685 Minor
5765 100 DMA 5677 200 HMA/Session low/14 July low
5745 4 July high 5654 13 July low
5729 14 July high 5638 200 DMA
5721 Session high 5607 12 July low


XAUUSD: 1234
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral- Possibly Mildly Bullish. Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips

Gold squeezed up to 1236 on Monday in a tight session (low 1228) and would seem to be building the base for further gains towards 1240/50.

Below the session low of 1228, 1220 should provide the support for Tuesday, and buying dips with a SL placed below 14 July’s low of 1215 could again be a plan.

While mildly bullish, it may just be that the 200 WMA will remain a magnate so I am not looking for too much in either direction right now.

Resistance Support
1250 (50% of 1295/1208) 1228 200 DMA/Session low
1247 100 DMA 1220 200 HMA
1241 (38.2% of 1295/1208) 1215 14 July low
1236 Session high 1205/08 11 July low/10 July low /(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1233 200 WMA 1195 10 March low


XAGUSD: 16.08
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips

Silver reached up to 16.20 on Monday, just below the descending trend resistance at around 16.30. The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators look increasingly positive and if 16.30 is taken out, we could see a swift run towards 16.50 and possibly on to 16.70.

The downside will now find bids at 16.00 and at 15.85. Further out, 15.60 looks well protected ahead of 15.45.

Buying dips currently looks to be the plan, with a SL now placed under 15.85. If 16.30 holds on the topside, we could then see the start of another reversal lower although this looks less likely at present.

Resistance Support
16.50 (38.2% of 18.65/15.18) 15.96 Session low
16.45 (50% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 15.85 200 HMA
16.30 Descending trend resistance 15.60 14 July low
16.22 5 July high 15.46 11 July low
16.20 Session high 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 45.96
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

WTI headed a little lower on Monday as traders continued to show concern about oversupply, despite recent data showing strong refinery demand from China and a slowdown in U.S. output. Having peaked at a new minor-trend high of 46.85, WTI then drifted down to finish the day just above the lows of 45.87.

The choppy conditions look set to continue, with the short term momentum indicators still looking a little heavy while the dailies look slightly more constructive.

On the topside, if we get back above 46.85, we could then revisit the early July high of 47.20, beyond which would open the way to 47.85 and then to 48.15/35.

On the downside, below today’s session low, support will be seen nearby, at 45.75, below which could then see a run back to 45.00. Below that could revisit levels of sub 44.00 although this now seems unlikely for a while.

Resistance Support
48.37 6 June high 45.95 Session low
48.15 (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 45.77 14 July low
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 44.96 13 July low
47.21 5 July high 43.81 11 July low
46.85 Session high 43.63 10 July low