18 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 18, 2019

There is a lot of blue on the heat-map on Monday, indicating the indecision that currently runs through the markets in general, and I suspect that it may remain that way until the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday (early Thursday for Asia). This would then suggest that range trading is generally the theme until then and the technical levels remain pretty much unchanged at the beginning of the week.

In the big picture, as we said before, US$Jpy remains near the convergence of the 100 DMA/200 DMA (111.35) but bracketed by the 100 WMA (110.75/112.25) and may be a reasonable range trade. For today, 111.00/80 may cover it.

In the absence of any risk-off news, we may see the commodity currencies drift slowly higher, while Cable also looks positive but is subject to Brexit headlines which may elicit a quick move lower, so caution is warranted.

For its part, the DXY does look mildly heavy at the start of the week so we could see the Euro and Chf make some slow gains although I don’t see anything major today.

Note that WTI finished the week above the 58.30 pivot that we mentioned on Friday, although it was a volatile ride that saw a quick dip to 58.00 ahead of a bounce.

It does appear to be breaking higher, in reaching 59.15 on Friday, and seems to test 60.00+. WTI is breaking above the neckline of the reverse Head/Shoulders, at 58.30 and also above the 100 WMA, which lies at the same level. If this is a S/H/S formation, the target here is at around $70.00. Keep a SL below 58.00, as a failure to carry on may see a reversal to the downside as longs rush for the exit.

Stocks are mixed – stand aside.


*Trade of the day: March 18, 2019; 9:55 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1350. SL @ 1.1385, TP @ 1.1260

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1285. SL @ 1.1245, TP @ 1.1350

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7110. SL @ 0.7140, TP @ 0.7040

Buy AudUsd @ 7020. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.7100

Range Trade: US$Jpy: 110.75/112.25 (SL 30 pips either side)

Buy WTI @ 58.50. SL @ 57.50, TP @ 60.00