18 May: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | May 18, 2018

With US yields heading higher (US10Y; 3.11%) again on Thursday, and some solid Fed data too, (Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey +34.4 vs expected 21.1), the dollar has remained underpinned, with US$Jpy looking particularly strong. Stock markets are slightly lower, under pressure from the firm yields while the metals are unchanged. WTI settled pretty much unchanged on Thursday but remained on track for a weekly gain amid expectations U.S. sanctions on Iran would cut global crude supplies, extending the rally in oil prices.

Friday will be rather thin for data. Japan will kick things off with the CPI for April after which the only excitement in Europe will come via the German Wholesale Price Index/PPI for April and the EU Current Account for March. The US will have a couple of Fed speakers; Kaplan/Brainard but that is it so it may be a quiet session unless political events intervene. Have a good weekend.


There is no change in the medium term view of a stronger US$ although with an empty calendar today it may be that we are in for a choppy but rather directionless session. In the crosses, EurAud looks a little heavy in the medium term, while AudNzd still seems to be a buy on dips scenario.

Elsewhere it looks a little messy. Gold remains heavy in the medium term but may see a minor squeeze higher to sell into, while Oil looks set to remain firm in the medium term.

No trades today.