18 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 18, 2019

Markets have been choppy and, with the exception of WTI, mostly without too much direction on Tuesday although the US$ is generally a little weaker, albeit within the previously defined range against all the major pairs.

Today will be all about the FOMC, and ahead of that I doubt that we see too much action so there are no trade ideas suggested for the coming session.


EurUsd:  A cautious stance is required to day ahead of the FOMC Meeting but the technical levels remain pretty much unchanged.  On the topside 1.1100/10 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/descending trend resistance) remains the initial topside hurdle, above which would then target 1.1125(61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163. Further resistance then lies at 1.1175(76.4% of 1. 1249/1.0925), at 1.1185 (100 DMA) and then at 1.1260 (200 DMA) although that remains some way off yet. On the downside, minor support will be seen at 1.1040 (55/100/200 HMAs crossing) ahead of 1.1090/1.1000.  Below here would open the way to 1.0965/70 and then to 1.0940/50 ahead of the 1.0925/27 double bottom. I don’t see it down here today, but if wrong, below 1.0925 opens the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), and further out there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772.


US$Jpy:  is pretty much unchanged ahead of today’s FOMC Meeting sitting below yesterday’s high of 108.36 but now above the 100 DMA (108.00). Resistance remains intact right here (76.4 of 109.31/104.44) but with the daily momentum indicators pointing higher, we could see a run back towards 108.35 and then to 108.45/50 (minor), beyond which would open the way to 108.80/109.00 and possibly towards the 1 August high at 109.31. On the downside, the initial support now sits at 107.90/80 (Rising trend support) and then at 107.65 (200 HMA ), below which could then see a return to 107.50 (16 Sept low) and to 107.40 (23.6% of 104.43/108.15).


AudUsd:  The Aud$ has recovered from the dip to 0.6830, seen yesterday, and currently sits unchanged from 24 hours ago at 0.6865, with little directional movement now expected ahead of the Fed decision later in the day. The short term momentum indicators are now mixed/neutral, while the longer term charts still look mildly constructive for further gains in the days ahead. If so, a break of 0.6880/85 would see further offers at 0.6895/0.6900, but above which could accelerate towards 0.6926 (61.8% of 0.7082/0.6676), and then to 0.6950 (minor) and possibly to 0.6985 (76.4%).On the downside, the initial support will be seen at 0.6850 (minor), at 0.6830 (session low) and again at 0.6815 (38.2% of 0.6687/0.6894). Below 0.6800 would see further bids at 0.6790 (50% of 0.6687/0.6829) and again at 0.6765 (61.8%) and at 0.6735(76.4%).


NzdUsd: The Kiwi has recovered a little of its lost ground on Tuesday, and after finding a base at 0.6321 it has since managed  a squeeze higher, to currently trade at 0.6355. The short term momentum indicators currently look a little more neutral although the longer term still suggests further downside. If so, 0.6320 will again see bids, below which could head back to 0.6310 (76.4% of 0.6268/0.6450) and to 0.6300. Under here, further support would arrive at 0.6280/85 (minor) and then at the trend low of 0.6269 (3 Sept low).  Below this, the next meaningful support is not seen until the September 2015 low at 0.6235, while more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125.  On the topside, minor resistance is in place at 0.6355/60, above which we could see a squeeze back to 0.6375-80 and then to 0.6400/10. Above here would allow a move towards 0.6420/25 and on to the trend high of 0.6450 (12 Sept). More distant levels to watch would be at 0.6466(38.2% of 0.6789/0.6269) and 0.6498 (9 August high) and at 0.6530 (50% pivot of 6789/0.6269).