19 April: Sterling lower after UK CPI miss raises doubts of a May rate hike. WTI up 3%. Australian jobs data ahead.

By | April 19, 2018

 

Stocks are steady today, while the US$ is mixed but mostly unchanged, with the main focus of the session being in oil which saw WTI jump by almost 3% due to a decline in US inventories and also after sources signalled that Saudi Arabia would be happy to see the crude price at closer to $100 a barrel. WTI closed above 68.00 for the first time since Dec 2014.

In the currency markets, while ranges have been mostly narrow the main focus was on Sterling, which fell sharply after the UK CPI missed market expectations and raised doubts on a BoE May interest rate hike. Elsewhere, the dollar was generally steady, but underpinned by higher US yields (10Y: 2.87%) and the view that the Fed will raise interest rates several times in 2018.

Thursday will get off to a busy start with the imminent release of the Q1 NZ CPI (exp 0.5%qq, 1.1%yy), to be followed by the Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence and Unemployment data (exp +25K, 5.4%, PR-65.6%). Europe will look to the EU Current Account and more UK data, this time the March Retail Sales (exp 0.2%mm, 1.1%yy; Ex-Fuel -1.7%mm, +2.0%yy), while the US will be thin again, with just the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey (exp 20.9) and the weekly Jobless Claims due, although there will be plenty of Fed speakers; Brainard, Quarles, Mester and also the BOE’s Cunnliffe. Have a good day.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2377
Res  1.2395  1.2420  1.2445
Sup  1.2350  1.2325  1.2300
USDJPY: 107.20
Res  107.40  107.60  107.75
Sup  106.95  106.60  106.30
GBPUSD: 1.4206
Res  1.4245  1.4280  1.4315
Sup  1.4170  1.4145  1.4120
USDCHF: 0.9682
Res  0.9695  0.9710  0.9740
Sup  0.9650  0.9625  0.9600
AUDUSD: 0.7783
Res  0.7795  0.7810  0.7825
Sup  0.7770  0.7750  0.7735
NZDUSD: 0.7321
Res  0.7345  0.7370  0.7395
Sup  0.7305  0.7275  0.7245
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2710
Res  2715  2730  2745
Sup  2700  2680  2665
DJI: 24738
Res  24820  24990  25185
Sup  24590  24415  24205
ASX SPI: 5862
Res  5870  5885  5900
Sup  5845  5830  5810
XAUUSD: 1349
Res  1350  1355  1365
Sup  1345  1335  1325
XAGUSD: 17.18
Res  17.25  17.50  17.75
Sup  17.00  16.80  16.60
WTI: 68.74
Res  68.90  70.00  71.70
Sup  68.20  67.55  66.75