19 Feb: Forecast: Commodities/Stock Indices + trade ideas

By | February 19, 2018

 

S&P: 2736
Preferred Strategy:  The S+P had a good week and made another recovery high in the wake of the previous week’s selloff, reaching 2754, before giving back a few of the day’s gains to finish the week at 2735
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:    Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The charts are mixed at the start of the week, with the dailies and weeklies pointing sharply in opposite directions (S+P, dailies; up/weeklies; down), so a cautious stance is required. The short term momentum indicators are telling us little so stand aside for now. Monday being a US holiday should mean a quiet session.
Resistance Support
2775 Minor 2722 Friday low
2762 5 Feb high 2715 Minor
2754 Friday high 2700 (23.6% of 2530/2754)
2745 (61.8% of 2878/2530) 2688 15 Feb low
2740 15 Feb high 2675 Minor


DJI: 25234
Ditto S+P.   The DJI also had a good week and made another recovery high in the wake of the previous week’s selloff, reaching 25421, before giving back some of the day’s gains to finish the week at 25227
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:   Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The DJI, in line with the S+P also looks mixed. Stand aside.
Resistance Support
25600 Minor 25111 Friday low
25500 Minor 25000 Minor
25421 Friday high 24900 Minor
25350 Minor 24865 (23.6% of 23058/25421)
25290 61.8% of 26662/23058 24700 Minor


ASX SPI: 5853
The ASX recovered in line with the other indices last week and reached a new recovery high of 5891 on Friday but then gave back a little heading into the close and finished at 5855.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  As with the US indices, the daily/weekly charts are giving conflicting outlooks so a cautious stance is required.  The 4 hour charts are turning to point lower though so the Monday preference is to trade from the short side, looking to sell rallies, with a SL place above the Friday high (5891), but looking for a run back towards 5825 and then to 5800.
Resistance Support
5960 76.4% of 6113/5602 5835 Friday low
5940 Minor 5826 15 Feb low /200 DMA
5920 61.8% of 6113/5602 /100 DMA 5800 200 HMA
5891 Friday high 5785 Minor
5875 Minor 5743 14 Feb low


XAUUSD: 1347
Gold is made a key day reversal after reaching a new high of 1361 on Friday, before heading lower, to finish the week at 1347.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  With the short term momentum indicators looking a little heavy now, we may be in for a drift back towards 1330/35, but with the dailies pointing higher I suspect that any downside momentum may be limited and buying dips may be the medium term plan. Much will depend on the direction of the dollar though. If that does see further gains then we could be in for a run back to 1315/20. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1350 and again at 1360/65, which should be strong. In the absence of the US/China, look for a fairly quiet session on Monday.
Resistance Support
1375 July 2016 high 1345/44 100 MMA /Friday low
1370 Minor 1335 Minor
1366 25 Jan high 1330 200 HMA
1361 Friday high 1325 Minor
1355 Minor 1316 14 Feb low


XAGUSD: 16.64
As with Gold, Silver traded lower on Friday, falling from 16.95 to 16.62.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral -Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:   The short term momentum indicators now look a little heavy and a run back towards 16.50/35 would not surprise, but with the dailies and the weeklies both in neutral mode I suspect a range trade of 16.00/17.00 could cover it for much of the week and for today look for 16.35/85 to contain it.
Resistance Support
17.70 25 Jan high 16.61 Friday low
17.50 Minor 16.50 Minor
17.25 9 Feb high /100 WMA 16.37 14 Feb low
17.00/16.94 200 WMA/ – Friday high 16.18 9 Feb low
16.85 100 DMA/200 DMA 16.00 Psychological


WTI: 61.49
WTI had a good week in rising by almost 6%, to finish at 61.50, and comes despite data showing that US production continues to increase. Friday saw data that showed that the number of oil rigs operating in the US jumped from 790 to 798, the highest level since April 2, 2015, according Baker Hughes.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower.
Preferred Strategy:   While the weeklies still look heavy, both the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators seem more constructive at the start of the week and hint at the chance of a run back towards 62.00, above which would allow for a move to Fibo levels at 62.35 and at 63.35. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 60.75 and then again at 59.70/60.00. Right now buying dips towards Friday’s low is favoured, with a SL placed sub 59.70.
Resistance Support
63.35 (61.8% pivot of 66.63/58.05) 61.00 200 HMA
63.00 Minor 60.75 Friday low
62.35 (50% pivot of 66.63/58.05) 60.20 100 HMA
62.06 8 Feb high 59.71 15 Feb low
61.85 Friday high 59.00 Minor