19 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 19, 2017

 

S&P: 2459
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

With the daily momentum indicators aligning slightly higher further gains would eventually seem likely although the short term charts are now neutral and another rangebound session would not surprise. Personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2480 Minor 2447 Session low
5475 Minor 2441 14 July low
2470 Minor 2433 (23.6% of 2345/2460)
2465 Minor 2422 12 July low
2460 Session/17 /14 July highs  –All-time high 2402 31 May low /30 June low

DJI: 21507                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Ditto S+P.

Resistance Support
21750 Minor 21450 200 HMA
21700 Minor 21415 Session low
21650 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21626 14 July high  – all-time high 21250 Minor
21607 Session high 21180 (38.2% of 20474/21626)


ASX SPI: 5629
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to sell rallies @ 5640. SL @5670. TP @5660.

The ASX fell sharply yesterday, care of the RBA Minutes, and the SPI has closed the NY session just above the session lows of 5600, currently at 5628.

The charts look mixed and a cautious stance is warranted although the 4 hourlies point lower, and a break of 5590/600 would then allow a move towards the next realistic support, not seen until 5525.

While US stocks remain bid, the ASX is probably going to remain in its current choppy range although the series of lower highs (as per the daily chart below)  suggest a continuation of the slow downside pressure.

On the topside, the 200 DMA will now act as immediate resistance at 5645 above which would head back towards previous levels, where 5700 has acted as a pivot. Right now I remain pretty neutral, possibly looking to sell rallies but with a tight SL.

Resistance Support
5745 4 July high 5600 Session low
5729 14 July high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)
5708 Session high 5575 Minor
5670 200 HMA 5550 Minor
5645 200 DMA 5526 6 Feb low


XAUUSD: 1242
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish. Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips towards 1233. SL @ 1220, TP @ 1255.

Gold has taken advantage of the softer dollar and has climbed from 1233 to 1245, closing at 1241.

The momentum indicators seem to point to further gains in the days ahead although there is good resistance right ahead and progress may be slow, if we see any. 1245/50 should be tough to crack, but above which could see a swift return to 1260.

On the downside, strong support will be seen at 1233/30, below which 1225/1220 will provide back-up.

Once again, buying dips with a SL placed below 1220 could again be a plan.

Resistance Support
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1235 Minor
1255 28 June high 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1250 (50% of 1295/1208) 1225 Neckline
1247 100 DMA 1220 200 HMA
1244 Session high 1215 14 July low


XAGUSD: 16.28
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips towards 16.10. SL @ 16.50, TP @ 15.90

Silver has broken above the short term descending trend resistance, and with the short term momentum indicators pointing higher we could now be in for a run towards 16.45/55 above which would take a look at 16.75, although not yet I suspect.

The downside will now find bids at 16.10/15, at 16.00 and at 15.85. Further out, 15.60 looks well protected ahead of 15.45.

Buying dips again looks to be the plan, with a SL now placed under 16.00.

Resistance Support
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.15 Minor
16.65 Minor 16.07 Session low
16.50 (38.2% of 18.65/15.18) 15.96 17 July low
16.45 (50% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 15.85 200 HMA
16.33 Session high 15.60 14 July low


WTI: 46.43
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

WTI had a rangebound session (45.79/46.89) leaving the outlook unchanged.

The choppy conditions look set to continue, with the short term momentum indicators still looking a little heavy, while the dailies look mildly constructive.

On the topside, if we get back above 46.90, we could then revisit the early July high of 47.20, beyond which would open the way to 47.85 and then to 48.15/35.

On the downside, below today’s low, support will be seen at 44.95/45.00, below which could then see a run back to 43.65/75 although this now seems unlikely for a while.

Resistance Support
48.37 6 June high 45.77/79 14 July low/Session low
48.15 (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 44.96 13 July low
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 43.81 11 July low
47.21 5 July high 43.63 10 July low
46.89 Session high 43.00 Minor