19 July: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | July 19, 2019

EurUsd:  The Euro is sharply higher on Friday following the dovish comments from the Fed, which undermined the US$ across the board, and appears to have the legs to head higher in the near term. Right ahead, the nearby resistance lies at 1.1282/85 (15/11 July highs) and then at 1.1300 ahead 1.1320/27 (200 DMA/ 61.8% of 1.1411/1.1192) .Above here looks unlikely in the short term, but further gains could then see a run towards 1.1360 (76.4%) 1.1400 and the 25 June high of 1.1411, beyond which the next target is at 1.1447 (20 March high), which ties in with the Fibo level (23.6% of 1.2555/1.1106). On the downside, minor support will now be seen at 1.1265, at 1.1250(200 DMA) and then at 1.1240/45 (100 HMA/200 HMA) ahead of the session low of 1.1205. Below this would open the way to the important 1.1190/1.1200 level, where the neckline of a head-shoulder formation may be building – which if correct would have a target of around 1.1000 albeit that this looks highly unlikely right now.  Ahead of that, if 1.1190/1.1200 is taken out, then we could see a move towards 1.1178 (76.4% of 1.1105/1.1411), which ties in with the 18 June low (1.1181), below which would then open the way to 1.1150 and to strong support at 1.1105/15.  While the short term momentum indicators do look bid, the daily charts remain in neutral so a cautious stance s required, but for the time being trading from the long side appears to be the plan.

DXY:  (96.70) The DXY has broken back below both the 100 DMA (97.15) and the 96.80/73 support (200 DMA/12 July low, and with the MACDs now turning lower, further downside momentum may lie ahead. If so, look for a decline towards 96.40 (minor) and 96.00 (200 WMA), below which could see a decline to the 25 June/20 March lows of 95.84/74. This area should be quite strong support, but a break would see a move towards the 10 Jan low at 95.03. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 96.80 (200 DMA) ahead of the 100 DMA (97.15), but which seems unlikely to be bothered today. Further out, recent highs at 97.45 (16 July high) and 97.59 (9 July high) and 97.76 (18 June high) would be more distant hurdles. Beyond here would then target 98.00 and the trend high at 98.37 (23 May) although that is a long way off. The daily MACDs are beginning to point lower but have yet to cross, so a cautious stance is required, but selling rallies with a SL placed above the 200 DMA (97.15 = €/Usd 1.1235) seems to be the idea.

US$Jpy:  is lower on Friday after the Williams comments and is currently toying with the Fibo support seen at 107.30 (76.4% of 106.78/108.98) below which would allow for a test of 107.00. Below here would then look to 106.77 (25 June low), beneath which there is only minor support, at 106.50 and 106.20, ahead of the next Fibo level at 105.98 (76.4% of 104.00/112.40). On the topside, resistance will now be seen at 107.50/60 ahead of 107.80 and 108.00. Selling rallies with a SL above 108.00 currently seems to be the idea.9980) and at the 100 DMA (1.0013). Further out, 1.0100 would be a more distant target.

AudUsd:  The Aud has taken out various levels of resistance on Thursday, to finish at session highs of 0.7075, and just shy of the 200 DMA at 0.7089. The Aud$ has not closed above the 200 DMA since March 2018 and a break could be quite bullish although it currently sits up against strong resistance, this being the base of the weekly cloud.. If we do see a run above here, expect 0.7100 stops to be triggered, which could then propel the Aud$ on towards the 55 WMA at 0.7135 and eventually higher. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7050/45 and then at 0.7020 (23.6% of 0.6831/0.7075) ahead of 0.7000. Given the current look of the short term momentum indicators the topside looks likely to come under some pressure, especially if the Fed continue the dovish talk later today, with Bullard due to talk later in the session.

 NzdUsd: As with the Aud$, the Kiwi is at new trend highs on Friday, currently at 0.6787 and looking as though 0.6800+ is on the cards. If so, look for a run toward s0.6829 (76.4% of 0.6938/0.6487) and on towards 0.6850. On the downside, support will be now seen at 0.6750/55 and then at 0.6735 and at 0.6715 (200 DMA/23.6% of 0.6487/0.6787). The momentum indicators generally look bullish now, so buying dips currently seems to be the plan although we can probably expect an RBNZ rate cut in August, so the upside may be limited.