19 Mar: Steady markets as traders await the Fed on Wednesday. RBA Minutes ahead. ZEW later.

By | March 19, 2019

 

It has been a quiet start to the week although the US$ was once again under some mild downside pressure against most major currencies on Monday, as caution about the economy and expectations for an accommodative Fed on Wednesday  kept it on the back foot.  The DXY remains close to the weekend levels, at 96.50 while US 10Y yields are at 2.605%.  As for the other currencies, the Aud$ had a quick move higher yesterday, although some of those have since been given up, underpinned by a strong performance in Chinese stocks (Shanghai Comp; +2.47%), while Cable remains very choppy because of Brexit, particularly today after the UK Parliament Speaker said that he will not allow another Brexit vote, potntially causing a constitutional crisis in the UK, unless the EU agrees to further changes.

Elsewhere there was very little activity. The US stock indices are up by just 0.1%/0.2% while the metals are flat. The other interest lay in WTI which is steadily heading towards 60.00 pb, and ended Monday, up 0.85% at 59.25. WTI is underpinned by the wishes of OPEC and Russia that production cuts will continue to kick the oil prices higher

Tuesday will see a bit of action, beginning with the NZ WBC Consumer Survey and the Australian House Price Index, followed by the RBA Minutes and a speech from the RBA’s Kent. Later on, the UK Unemployment data will be released (Claimant Acc; exp +3K, Unemployment Rate @ 4.0%), while the EU will look to the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for guidance. From the US we get the January Factory Orders (exp -0.5%) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory. Kiwi traders will also look at the Global Dairy Trade Index (exp +0.1%) at midday London time.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: WBC NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence  Survey, Australian House Price Index, RBA’s Kent Speech, RBA Minutes, UK Unemployment, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU Labour Costs, US Factory Orders, Global Dairy Trade Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory,

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1338
Res  1.1360  1.1390  1.1420
Sup  1.1315  1.1270  1.1295
USDJPY: 111.37
Res  111.60  111.90  112.15
Sup  111.25  111.00  110.75
GBPUSD: 1.3250
Res  1.3300  1.3350  1.3390
Sup  1.3220  1.3180  1.3130
USDCHF: 1.0008
Res  1.0050  1.0085  1.0125
Sup  0.9995  0.9960  0.9925
AUDUSD: 0.7102
Res  0.7120  0.7140  0.7160
Sup  0.7070  0.7050  0.7035
NZDUSD: 0.6853
Res  0.6875  0.6900  0.6940
Sup  0.6830  0.6805  0.6785
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2835.53
Res  2840.00  2850.00  2860.00
Sup  2820.00  2810.00  2800.00
DJ30.fs: 25911.50
Res  25965.00  26125.00  26275.00
Sup  25670.00  25490.00  25265.00
SPI200.fs: 6208
Res  6210  6225  6245
Sup  6160  6180  6140
XAUUSD: 1303.31
Res  1305.00  1310.00  1315.00
Sup  1295.00  1290.00  1285.00
XAGUSD: 15.34
Res  15.40  15.55  15.70
Sup  15.20  15.05  14.90
WTI.fs: 59.29
Res  59.50  60.00  60.85
Sup  58.70  58.00  57.35