19 Oct: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities

By | October 19, 2017

 

S&P: 2560
Preferred Strategy: The S+P had a tight session but closed once more at an all-time high and further gains look likely although I prefer not to be involved. Good corporate results are currently underpinning the index, as is the prospect of Trump’s tax-plan being passed in the US Senate. If this fails to proceed, we might be in for a nasty accident. For those who do want to trade it, then looking to buy dips seems to be the plan although note that the daily charts do suggest that we are getting close to a topping scenario.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2580 Minor 2556 Session low
2575 Minor 2552 17 Oct low
2570 Minor 2546 14 Oct low/12 Oct low
2565 Minor 2534 (23.6% of 2445/2560)
2562 Session high – all-time high 2525 (23.6% of 2420/2560)


DJI: 23119
Preferred Strategy: The DJI made another all time high close today, up by around 0.8% and closing above 23000 for the first time. As with the S+P, the daily charts are now becoming overbought and a correction looks overdue. Stand aside.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23300 Minor 22960 Session low
23250 Minor 22885 17 Oct low
23200 Minor 22777 14 Oct low
23150 Minor 22679 6 Oct low
23122 Session high – all-time high 22600 Minor


ASX SPI: 5868
Preferred Strategy: The ASX had another strong session in reaching 5888 although it has now seen a minor reverse to close at 5870. The 4 hour momentum indicators are at overbought extremes and  are topping out but the dailies are pointing strongly higher, so looking to buy dips towards 5820 seems to be the plan.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
5931 3 May high 5850 Minor
5925 Minor 5825 (23.6% of 5625/5888)
5913 11 May high 5815 16 Oct low
5900 Minor 5800 Minor
5888 Session high 5770 14 Oct low


XAUUSD: 1281
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains heavy but has bounced off a new trend low of 1275 to currently sit at 1280. The short term momentum indicators are mixed and the dailies are neutral, and over the next couple of days it looks as though we may end up chopping around near current levels. Stand aside, or maybe trade a range 0f 1270/1290, with a tight SL either side. Given the preference of a stronger US$ over the medium term the plan seems to be to trade strategically from the short side.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1315 20 Sept high 1277 Session low
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1275 100 DMA
1306 16 Oct high 1270 Minor
1296 17 Oct high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1288 Session high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA


XAGUSD: 16.98
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.90 Session low /(50% of 16.32/17.41)
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.77 (61.8% of 16.32/17.41)
17.46 16 Oct high 16.70 Minor
17.25 Minor 16.60 (76.4% of 16.32/17.41)
17.10 Session high 16.32 6 Oct low


WTI: 52.23
Preferred Strategy: WTI settled higher on Wednesday as inventories fell by roughly 5.7m barrels in the week ended Oct. 13, beating expectations of a draw of 4.2m barrels.  It looks increasingly as though WTI is about to give a more serious nudge to the long-term trend resistance at 52.55. A break of this would then allow the long awaited run to 55.00 and possibly on to 60.00 although this remains over the horizon. On the downside, minor support arrives at 51.00 ahead of the more substantial 50.00, where the rising trend support now lies.
24 Hour: Neutral  – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
54.59 27 Feb high 51.90 Session low
54.41 1 Mar high 51.19 17 Oct low
53.73 9 April high 50.68 14 Oct low
52.83 28 Sept high 50.13 12 Oct low
52.55 Descending trend resistance/Session high 49.11/07 9 Oct low/6 Oct low