19 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 19, 2019

Markets have shown limited reaction to the Fed decision to cut rates by 25bp but the US$ is a little firmer and this seems as though it could continue, with US$Jpy and US$Chf both looking constructive, while the Aud and the Kiwi both look heavy. The Euro and Sterling look mixed in the short term although the cross, EurGbp, does look as though it has further downside potential. Elsewhere, stocks still seem underpinned in the medium/longer term while  Gold is beginning to look interesting, and may be building a head/shoulder top, with a neckline at around 1485 – not too far away – and an objective of around 1410.

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*Trade of the day: September 19, 2019; 7:31 AM(AET)                  

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1060. SL @ 1.1090, TP @ 1.0950

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0970. SL @ 1.0925, TP @ 1.1050

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6860. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.6800

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6785. SL @ 0.6665, TP @ 0.6885

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6335. SL @ 0.6375, TP @ 0.6285

Sell Gold @ 1500. SL @ 1525, TP @ 1450

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EurUsd:  The Euro remains rangebound following the FOMC outcome leaving the outlook rather muddied and requiring a neutral stance for now. On the topside the session high at 1.1075 will provide the initial resistance ahead of 1.1100/10 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/descending trend resistance), above which would then target 1.1125(61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163. Further resistance then lies at 1.1175(76.4% of 1. 1249/1.0925), at 1.1185 (100 DMA) and then at 1.1260 (200 DMA) although that remains some way off yet. On the downside, minor support will be seen at the session low of 1.1015 ahead of 1.1090/1.1000.  Below here would open the way to 1.0965/70 and then to 1.0940/50 ahead of the 1.0925/27 double bottom. I don’t see it down here today, but if wrong, below 1.0925 opens the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), and further out there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772. A range trade of 1.0970/1.1070 may well cover it.

 

US$Jpy:  is grinding slowly higher and is currently at the trend high o4 108.47. The dailies remain positive, and if 108.50 can be overcome then we could see progress towards 108.80/109.00 and possibly towards the 1 August high at 109.31, which ties in with the 200 DMA. The short term momentum indicators may be running out of steam though,  and on the downside the initial support now sits at 108.20/25 ahead of 108.00 (100 DMA/Rising trend support) and then at 107.75 (200 HMA ), below which could then see a return to 107.50 (16 Sept low) and to 107.40 (23.6% of 104.43/108.15).  A rangebound session of 108.00-70 may lie ahead although any surprise by the BOJ will bring about a sharper reaction.

 

AudUsd:  The Aud$ has seen a brief spike down to 0.6812 following the FOMC Meeting, and currently sits at 0.6830, with the focus now turning to the Australian jobs data (exp 5.2%, +10K). The short term momentum indicators are now turning heavy, and on the downside, the initial support will be seen at 0.6815 (38.2% of 0.6687/0.6894) below which would find decent bids at 0.6800. If the jobs report is below expectations, we could head below 0.6800 towards further bids at 0.6790 (50% of 0.6687/0.6829) and again at 0.6765 (61.8%) and at 0.6735(76.4%).  A decent jobs outcome would see a quick return towards 0.6860/65 and possible back to 0.6880/85, above which would see further offers at 0.6895/0.6900. Above 0.6900 seems unlikely today, but if wrong we could then see an acceleration towards 0.6926 (61.8% of 0.7082/0.6676), and then to 0.6950 (minor) and possibly to 0.6985 (76.4%).

 

NzdUsd: The Kiwi remains heavy on Thursday ahead of the NZ Q2 GDP  (exp 0.4%qq, 2.0%yy) and currently sits at 0.6310 (76.4% of 0.6268/0.6450) , having seen a kneejerk spike down to 0.6300 immediately after the FOMC decision. The momentum indicators look heavy, and a break below 0.6300 would head towards further support at 0.6280/85 (minor) and then at the trend low of 0.6269 (3 Sept low).  Below this, the next meaningful support is not seen until the September 2015 low at 0.6235, while more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125.  On the topside, minor resistance is in place at 0.6330 and at 0.6355/60, above which we could see a squeeze back to 0.6375-80 and then to 0.6400/10. Above here would allow a move towards 0.6420/25 and on to the trend high of 0.6450 (12 Sept). More distant levels to watch would be at 0.6466(38.2% of 0.6789/0.6269) and 0.6498 (9 August high) and at 0.6530 (50% pivot of 6789/0.6269). Trading from the short side is preferred and selling rallies with a SL placed above 0.6360.