The Euro rallied strongly on Friday, mostly in Asia after the announcement of an EU agreement on immigration policy and took the other currency majors along with it, placing the US$ under some pressure. The FX pairs now look rather mixed, and a cautious stance is probably wise on Monday although whether the migration deal holds remains to be seen, and in the longer term I suspect that the current US$ selloff does provide a decent buying opportunity, particularly against the Euro. In terms of data, despite Friday’s miss in the US personal spending figure at +0.2%, below expectation of 0.4%, the core PCE beat expectations, as did the June Chicago PMI, hinting at a strong June ISM and NFPs this coming week. Overall I still prefer to buy the dollar on dips although we may see further near term downside yet.
In the other currencies, the Aud$ looks a bit more healthy and may be a short term buy, but in the longer term is still a sell on rallies.
On the crosses, EurJpy may be building up steam for a run up towards 130+
In the commodities bloc, WTI still looks very strong but is now running into heavy resistance (100 MMA and 61.8% of 107.65/26.03) lies ahead. Gold remains under pressure and I think remains a sell on rallies.
*Trade of the day: 6/30/2018 8:54 AM (AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
Sell Gold @ 1260. SL @ 1270, TP @ 1240
Sell EurUsd @ 1.720. SL 1.1770, TP 1.1500