2 Nov: FOMC on hold. BOE Meeting today. Australian Trade Balance, Building Permits coming up.

By | November 2, 2017

 

The US$ is mixed after the Fed decision to leave rates on hold and traders will now look to Friday’s NFP for guidance ahead of the expected rate hike in December, which was alluded to in the Statement. Aside from the Fed there was some other important data on Wednesday, with the UK PMI manufacturing rising to 56.3 in October, up from 55.9 and above expectation of 55.9 and underpinning the chance of a UK rate hike later today. In terms of US data, the ADP report showed a 235k growth in private sector jobs in October, above expectation of 200k and mildly underpinned the dollar although the ISM manufacturing index missed expectation and dropped to 58.7 in October. Price paid dropped to 68.5 but beat expectation, while the employment component dropped slightly to 59.8, from 60.3, but overall stayed strong. Stocks were firm after having made new all time highs, while the metals were rangebound. WTI was volatile, and briefly reached the December 2016 high but closed lower, as a surge in crude exports offset data showing supplies of U.S crude oil and gasoline decline more-than-expected.

Thursday should be steady ahead of Friday’s US employment data (exp NFP +312K, Headline; 4.2%, AHE 0.3%) Ahead of that today will kick off with the Australian Trade Balance (exp 1.2 mio) and Building Permits (exp -1%). The German Unemployment and the EU Mfg PMI (exp 58.6) will be the early focus in Europe (exp -11k, 5.6%), and comes ahead of the long awaited BOE meeting at which the first rate hike in 10 years is anticipated., from 0.25% to 0.5%. The APP is expected to remain unchanged, at Gbp 435 bio. BOE Governor, Mark Carney will be speaking shortly after the event, at 12.30pm GMT. There is little to come from the US – ISM Business Conditions Index – with most traders waiting for the fireworks, tomorrow. Note that the new Fed Chair – Powell?, Powell/Taylor double act? – could well be announced today, before Trump heads to Asia tomorrow.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1616
Res  1.1635  1.1660  1.1690
Sup  1.1600  1.1575  1.1550
USDJPY: 114.14
Res  114.25  114.45  114.90
Sup  113.95  113.65  113.40
GBPUSD: 1.3244
Res  1.3275  1.3305  1.3335
Sup  1.3225  1.3195  1.3170
USDCHF: 1.0032
Res  1.0040  1.0075  1.0100
Sup  1.0000  0.9970  0.9940
AUDUSD: 0.7672
Res  0.7685  0.7700  0.7720
Sup  0.7655  0.7640  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.6884
Res  0.6905  0.6930  0.6960
Sup  0.6860  0.6820  0.6775
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2574
Res  2585  2590  2600
Sup  2565  2560  2555
DJI: 23369
Res  23460  23540  23650
Sup  23275  23195  23140
ASX SPI: 5934
Res  5950  5975  6000
Sup  5915  5900  5880
XAUUSD: 1276
Res  1280  1285  1290
Sup  1270  1265  1260
XAGUSD: 17.15
Res  17.20  17.30  17.45
Sup  17.05  16.90  16.65
WTI: 54.25
Res  54.60  55.20  56.50
Sup  53.90  53.55  53.10