2 Oct: US$ mixed after NAFTA agreement. Euro heavy on Italy concerns. WTI strongly higher. RBA meeting ahead.

By | October 2, 2018

 

Monday was a choppy session, with the US$ generally firm, and with the Euro still under pressure from the political uncertainty in Italy. The Canadian dollar was in focus, boosted by the new trilateral USMCA trade deal with the US and Mexico, while Sterling briefly shot higher on reports that UK PM Theresa May is ready to make a new offer on the Irish border negotiations although no details have been released and Sterling eventually gave up its gains. The Yen remains under pressure, probing against 114.00, which look set to give way while no safe haven demand it required. The crosses have been mostly mixed, as have stocks, while the main mover of the day was WTI, which shot up 3.3% on the back of heightened concerns over the Iranian sanctions crisis.

Tuesday will be busy, beginning with NZ Q3 Business Confidence (just released – worst figure since 2009. Kiwi down 10 pips) and then the RBA Interest Rate Decision. No change is expected to policy and all eyes will be on the Statement. Later on it will be the EU PPI and the US Total Vehicle Sales that are in focus, while the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will also be speaking, as will the Fed board member Randal Quarles.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1576
Res  1.1600  1.1625  1.1650
Sup  1.1560  1.1525  1.1490
USDJPY: 113.97
Res  114.05  114.25  114.50
Sup  113.75  113.50  113.25
GBPUSD: 1.3038
Res  1.3060  1.3085  1.3115
Sup  1.3000  1.2975  1.2950
USDCHF: 0.9837
Res  0.9855  0.9875  0.9900
Sup  0.9820  0.9800  0.9785
AUDUSD: 0.7223
Res  0.7240  0.7260  0.7280
Sup  0.7200  0.7185  0.7165
NZDUSD: 0.6614
Res  0.6645  0.6670  0.6695
Sup  0.6595  0.6570  0.6535
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2929
Res  2940  2950  2960
Sup  2920  2910  2900
DJ30.fs: 26681
Res  26715  26765  26815
Sup  26630  26585  26540
SPI200.fs: 6167
Res  6185  6200  6215
Sup  6155  6140  6125
XAUUSD: 1188
Res  1190  1195  1200
Sup  1185  1180  1175
XAGUSD: 14.48
Res  14.60  14.70  14.80
Sup  14.35  14.25  14.15
WTI.fs: 75.64
Res  75.90  77.05  78.20
Sup  75.00  74.00  72.90