20 Feb: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | February 20, 2019

It has been very much a “risk-on” session, on the back of hopes of a positive outcome from the US/China trade talks. Stocks remain firm, Gold is at multi month highs and the Aud and Kiwi reversed sharply from the day’s lows to finish at session highs.

Right now this theme looks set to continue, with the US$ looking set to remain under some downside pressure, in the short term at least. The medium term outlook for the dollar remains clouded though and further volatile but rather directionless trade seems to be on the agenda.

The Jpy is also under pressure and the crosses look well bid in the short term and trading from the long side is therefore preferred. EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY all look as though they have positive momentum although they will be dependent on further positive trade headlines. Any negativity will seem them turn sharply lower.

WTI also still seems to be a “buy-on -dips” scenario, and is now well above the neckline of the Head/Shoulders, currently trading at 56.25. The target here is at around $68.00 and the SL should be just below 54.00. In the near term though, note that decent resistance lies ahead at the 100 DMA (56.85).

Gold is up again today but may be showing signs of topping out, so cautiously selling rallies may be a plan. Having said that, the 100 MMA is at 1350 and we may need to test that level, so selling it there is preferred with a tight SL above.

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*Trade of the day: February 20, 2019; 10:36 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7210. SL @ 0.7245, TP @ 0.7120

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7115. SL @ 0.7085, TP @ 0.7200

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1290/1.1390 (SL 50 pips either side)

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9980. SL @ 0.9940, TP @ 1.0100

Buy WTI @ 54.80. SL @ 53.50, TP @ 58.00

Sell Gold @ 1350. SL @ 1360, TP @ 1335