20 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 20, 2017


S&P: 2471
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Tech stocks have pushed the S+P to new highs, and with the daily momentum indicators aligning slightly higher further gains would seem likely. The short term charts are also looking more constructive and a continuation of the squeeze to the topside would not surprise although note that the DJI was unable to follow through on the topside, so some caution is warranted. Personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2490 Minor 2457 Session low
2485 Minor 2447 18 July low
2480 Minor 2440 (23.6% of 2345/2470)
5475 Minor 2430 Minor
2470 Session high -All-time high 2422 (38.2% of 2345/2470)

DJI: 21585
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The DJI was higher but below the all-time high after IBM weighed on the downside following a miss in its quarterly profit report. Further choppy trade looks likely although the momentum indicators do look mildly constructive and could take the DJI back to the 21626 high. Sidelined

Resistance Support
21700 Minor 21502 Session low
21650 Minor 21465 200 HMA
21626 14 July high  – all-time high 21415 18 July low
21607 18 July high 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21575 Session high 21250 Minor

ASX SPI: 5687
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The ASX jumped higher on Wednesday after APRA introduced new capital adequacy levels that were deemed less onerous than had been feared.

This means that we are now back in the middle of the recent range, mostly covered by the 100 DMA/200 DMA at 5765/5645 respectively, although both sides of that range have been temporarily taken out in recent days. Today will be driven by the Unemployment data but generally, looking to trade the range seems to be the ongoing plan, with the momentum indicators giving little hint in either direction.

Resistance Support
5765 100 DMA 5641 Session low/200 DMA
5745 4 July high 5620 Minor
5729 14 July high 5600 18 July low
5708 18 July high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)
5691 Session high 5575 Minor

XAUUSD: 1241
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral – Prefer to buy dips

Gold has had a rangebound session (1236/1244) leaving the outlook unchanged

The daily momentum indicators still seem to point to further gains in the days ahead although good resistance lies immediately above current levels and any progress may be slow. 1245/50 should be tough to crack, but above which could see a swift return to 1260.

The short term momentum indicators look rather neutral and if we fail to push higher, then on the downside, strong support will be seen at 1235/30, below which 1225/1220 will provide back-up.

Once again, buying dips with a tight SL placed below 1230 could be a plan.

Resistance Support
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1235 Session low
1255 28 June high 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1250 (50% of 1295/1208) 1225 Neckline
1247 100 DMA 1220 200 HMA
1244 18 July high /Session high 1215 14 July low

XAGUSD: 16.25
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: xxxx

Silver has had a rangebound session (16.15/36) leaving the outlook unchanged

Having broken above the short term descending trend resistance, today reaching 16.36, we could be in for a run towards 16.45/55 above which would take a look at 16.75, although not yet I suspect as the short term momentum indicators do not have any real momentum behind them.

The downside will again find bids at 16.10/15, at 16.00 and at 15.85. Further out, 15.60 looks well protected ahead of 15.45.

Buying dips again looks to be the plan, with a SL now placed under 16.05.

Resistance Support
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.15 Session low
16.65 Minor 16.07 18 July low
16.50 (38.2% of 18.65/15.18) 15.96 17 July low
16.45 (50% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 15.85 200 HMA
16.36 Session high 15.60 14 July low

WTI: 47.24
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Mildly Bullish. Prefer to buy dips towards 46.50. SL @ 45.70, TP @ 49.50.

WTI squeezed up to a high of 47.44 on Wed, taking out the previous 47.20 resistance after a story went round that Saudi may cut its output.

With the short term momentum indicators now looking a little more constructive and seem to now underpin the dailies, further gains would allow a move towards 48.15 and possibly to 48.60, above which, the 200 DMA lies at 49.55.

On the downside, below today’s low of 46.30, support will be seen at 45.75 and then at 44.95/45.00, below which could then see a run back to 43.65/75 although this now seems unlikely for a while.

Resistance Support
48.60 (50% pivot of 55.21/42.03) 46.75 Minor
48.35 100 DMA 46.30 Session low
48.15 (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 45.77/79 14 July low/18 July low
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 44.96 13 July low
47.44 Session high 43.63 10 July low