Once again, there is a lot of blue on the heat-map at the end of Tuesday trade, in what was again a quiet session as traders wait on today’s FOMC Meeting. The technical levels therefore remain pretty much unchanged ahead of Wednesday and it seems set to be very quiet until the Fed announcement, early tomorrow Australia/NZ time..
In the short term, EurUsd is still sitting above rising trend support, currently close by, at 1.1345, a break of which may see some minor downside momentum towards the 100 HMA (1.1328) and possibly to the 200 HMA (1.1287). As long as this holds, we might expect a squeeze towards resistance at 1.1365 (55/100DMAs) and then possibly on to 1.1420.
US$Jpy has done very little on Tuesday, and for Wednesday 111.00/60 may cover it, at least ahead of the Fed. In the big picture, as we said before, US$Jpy remains near the convergence of the 100 DMA/200 DMA (111.35) but bracketed by the 100 WMA (110.75/112.25) and may be a reasonable range trade.
Aud$ looks mildly heavy heading into Wednesday but is ultimately a range trade, I suspect, pretty much covered by 0.7070/0.7110 today.
The US stock indices have turned a little lower late on Tuesday, on a possible delay in any US/China trade deal, and at the start of Wednesday trade they look mildly heavy. The S+P, after making a new 5 month high is currently resting on the 100 HMA, a break of which could see a run back towards the 200 HMA at 2800. All will depend on the Fed.
WTI finished Tuesday unchanged after having reached a session/4 month high of 59.84. Currently back below $59.50 (50% of 76.87/42.23), 59.50/80 will be strong resistance ahead of a possible test of 60.00. If we do make it there, the next major resistance would be at 61.75 (200 DMA).
In the bigger picture, WTI does appear to be breaking above the neckline of the reverse Head/Shoulders, at 58.30 and also above the 100 WMA, which lies at the same level. If this is a S/H/S formation, the target here is at around $70.00. Keep a SL below 58.00, as a failure to carry on may see a reversal to the downside as longs rush for the exit. Keep an eye on the growth projections from the Fed later today. A sizeable downturn would potentially put a dent in the oil price, although an upbeat bias would allow WTI to give 60+ a decent nudge.
*Trade of the day: March 20, 2019; 8:28 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Sell EurUsd @1.1375. SL @ 1.1405, TP @ 1.1260
Buy EurUsd @ 1.1300. SL @ 1.1275, TP @ 1.1380
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7135. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7040
Buy AudUsd @ 7065. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.7110
Buy WTI @ 58.55. SL @ 57.75, TP @ 61.00