|Preferred Strategy: US Stocks traded a little lower on Friday, with the S+P falling 10 points to 2575, but leaving the outlook unchanged.
More choppy trade looks possibly on Monday and the 2555/65 area continues to provide decent support although given the building negative look of the longer term momentum indicators, I think we may see this area tested again, below which could see a move towards 2540/50.
As we said before, while a test of 2600 should not be ruled out, the longer-term indicators do look a bit toppish, so I am rather wary of being long at these levels. I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels although at this stage there is little sign of a significant turnaround to the longer term uptrend despite the toppish look of the indicators.
|24 Hour: Neutral||Medium Term: Neutral|
|2600||14 Nov high||2562||16 Nov low|
|2594||9 Nov high – all-time high||2555||15 Nov low|
|2589||16 Nov high||2550||(23.6% of 2421/2594)|
|Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P. I suspect a test of 23200, possibly 23100 lies ahead. So selling into near term strength with a SL above 23470 is preferred.|
|24 Hour: Neutral||Medium Term: Neutral|
|23600||Minor||23243||16 Nov low|
|23555||7 Nov high – all-time high||23198||25 Oct low|
|23462||16 Nov high||23150||Minor|
|23439||Friday high||23085||(23.6% of 21578/23555)|
|ASX SPI: 5970|
|Preferred Strategy: The ASX SPI200 had a choppy 5956/96 range on Friday and the momentum indicators hint that we could be in for something similar today.
The 4 hour indicators are now pretty neutral and minor resistance at 5980 may cap it ahead of 5995/6000, which would see decent sellers, but above which could see a return to the recent 6046 high
The dailies are pointing increasingly lower though, and if the US indices head in the same direction then another test of the downside may be on the cards, where 5950/60 will provide minor support ahead of the 5927, 16 Nov low. Below that would extend to 5900 and on to 5880, albeit not today.
In the longer term, the weeklies still point higher and If we do carry on above the recent 6044 high, there seems to be little to stop the SPI reaching 6102, which would close a major chart gap from Dec 2007
|24 Hour: Neutral||Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies|
|6043/46||13 Nov high/9 Nov high||5940||Minor|
|6025||Minor||5927||16 Nov low|
|6000||Psychological||5907||2 Nov low|
|5996||Friday high||5885||(38.2% of 5626/6046)|
|Preferred Strategy: Gold rose sharply on Friday, on the back of a rise in geopolitical uncertainty after North Korea ruled out negotiations with Washington on curbing its nuclear weapons programme. The weaker US$ also helped underpin Gold which reached 1297 and now looks capable of further gains towards 1310/15 above which would look towards 1320.
If we see the dollar regain its recent losses and risk sentiment improve over the coming week, we could then see a return to 1275, where strong support lies but below which would open up the chance of a move to 1260 and then to 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support.
|24 Hour: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips||Medium Term: Neutral|
|1320||(61.8% of 1357/1261)||1288||Minor|
|1313||26 Sept high||1280||Minor|
|1309||(50% of 1357/1261)||1276||100 DMA|
|1300||Minor||1266||6 Nov low|
|1296||17 Oct high/Daily cloud base /Friday high||1261||6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA|
|Preferred Strategy: Silver coat-tailed Gold and reached a 1 month high of 17.38 on Friday, and now seems capable of heading on towards the October high of 17.46, which should be decent resistance. The dailies are still rather neutral though, so I would not be getting too excited here given the confluence of the major moving averages at current levels which may act as a near term magnate, but further gains could then see a run towards 17.75.
On the downside, support will be seen at 17.15 and then at 17.00/05 below which would return to 16.85/90 but right now this seems unlikely.
|24 Hour: Neutral – Mildly Bullish||Medium Term: Neutral|
|17.85||Minor||17.20/15||200 WMA/200 DMA|
|17.75||(76.4% of 18.21/16.33)||17.02||Friday low /100 WMA|
|17.65||Minor||16.96||15 Nov low /16 Nov low|
|17.46/50||16 Oct high/(61.8% of 18.21/16.33)||16.90/87||100 WMA /14 Nov low|
|17.38||Friday high||16.80/78||10 Nov low/6 Nov low/3 Nov low|
|Preferred Strategy: WTI ended the week with a good bounce after Saudi Arabia moved to dispel doubts that Russia is ready to extend output curbs, and having easily held on to the 55.00 level Friday it finished with a steady climb higher to end the week at 56.70 a daily gain of 2.5%
With the short term momentum indicators looking a little more positive we could see further gains today, with minor resistance above 56.75 to be seen at the 13 Nov high of 57.13, ahead of the recent trend high at 57.89.
The dailies look a little uncertain about the topside in the near term and if we do head lower again, support will arrive at 56.00, at 55.40 and then at 54.75, which if seen would possibly present a buying opportunity and a long as we stay above the rising trend support, now at 52.90, I prefer to look for areas to buy dips.
In the bigger picture the weeklies remain positive, and having briefly moved up to 57.89 last week, this will act as strong resistance ahead of the chance of a test of equally strong resistance, the 200 WMA at 59.00. Above here 60.00 would seem a short step away although that is well over the horizon right now.
|24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips||Medium Term: Cautiously Bullish – but prefer to buy dips towards 53.00/50.|
|57.89||8 Nov high||54.91||16 Nov low|
|57.13||13 Nov high||54.75/79||(23.6% of 45.56/57.89) 14 Nov low|
|56.73/75||Friday high/14 Nov high||54.10||(23.6% of 42.03/57.89)|