20 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 20, 2019

It looks like being a slow end to the week given the rather empty calendar and, in the short term at least, there does not appear to be an awful lot on the heat map to give any directional guidance. The one exception to this may be ongoing Sterling strength, with a positive bias against each of the Euro, Aud (chart) and Nzd. That aside it looks as though we may be in for a relatively quiet end to the week.


*Trade of the day: September 20, 2019; 8:13 AM(AET)                  

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1080. SL @ 1.1115, TP @ 1.0950

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0990. SL @ 1.0940, TP @ 1.1050

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6825. SL @ 0.6855, TP @ 0.6775

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6780. SL @ 0.6665, TP @ 0.6885

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6335. SL @ 0.6375, TP @ 0.6285

Sell Gold @ 1510. SL @ 1525, TP @ 1450


 EurUsd:  The Euro remains rangebound on Friday leaving the outlook rather muddied and requiring a neutral stance for now. On the topside the Thursday/Friday high at 1.1075/72 will provide the initial resistance ahead of 1.1100/10 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/descending trend resistance), above which would then target 1.1125(61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163. Further resistance then lies at 1.1175(76.4% of 1. 1249/1.0925), at 1.1185 (100 DMA) and then at 1.1260 (200 DMA) although that remains some way off yet. On the downside, minor support will be seen at the 18 Sept low of 1.1015 ahead of 1.1090/1.1000.  Below here would open the way to 1.0965/70 and then to 1.0940/50 ahead of the 1.0925/27 double bottom. I don’t see it down here today, but if wrong, below 1.0925 opens the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), and further out there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772. A range trade of 1.1000/1.1080 may well cover it

US$Jpy:  was unable to overcome the resistance at 108.50 on Thursday and eventually turned lower as Jpy strength surfaced, with the pair falling to a low of 107.78 before a recovery to currently sit at familiar territory, at 108.00. The dailies remain mildly positive, and if 108.50 can be overcome then we could see progress towards 108.80/109.00 and possibly towards the 1 August high at 109.31, which ties in with the 200 DMA. The short term momentum indicators do not suggest that we see a break of 108.50 today though, it may be that we hang close to 108.00 today (100 DMA/Rising trend support) , but below which could see a return to 107.75. Under here could then see a decline to 107.50 (16 Sept low/23.6% of 104.43/108.47), to 107.20 (minor) and to 106.92 (38.2% of 104.43/108.47).  A rangebound session of 108.25-107.75 may lie ahead

AudUsd:  The Aud$ remains heavy following on from yesterdays move after the Australian jobs data and currently sits just above the lows of 0.6780. The 4 hour momentum indicators are heavy, and on the downside, if we go below 0.6780, the initial support will be seen at 0.6765 (61.8% of 0.6687/0.6894) and then at 0.6735(76.4%).  Further out, I still suspect that we may see a return to 0.6700/10 as an RBA rate cut looms on the horizon, below which would open the way back to 0.6688, where we have a minor double bottom( 3 Sept/26 August lows) and which comes ahead of 0.6675 (7 Aug low). Below 0.6675, there is minor support at 0.6660, but under there would open the way to 0.6500 and, further out, the next major Fibo level is not seen until 0.6250 (76.4% of 0.4773 (April 2001)/1.1082 (July 2011)). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6810 (minor) ahead of 0.6830 and 0.6850 (200 HMA). Above here now looks unlikely, although if wrong, look for further offers to arrive at 0.6860/65 and again at 0.6880/85. Beyond this would see a return to 0.6895/0.6900, which seems unlikely for a while, but if wrong we could then see an acceleration towards 0.6926 (61.8% of 0.7082/0.6676), and then to 0.6950 (minor) and possibly to 0.6985 (76.4%). Selling rallies towards 0.6825, with a SL at 0.6860 seems to be the plan

NzdUsd: The Kiwi remains heavy on Friday but currently sits on the support seen at 0.6290/0.6300.The momentum indicators look heavy, and a break below 0.6290 would find further support at 0.6280/85 (minor) and then at the trend low of 0.6269 (3 Sept low).  Below this, the next meaningful support is not seen until the September 2015 low at 0.6235, while more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125.  On the topside, minor resistance is in place at 0.6320/30 and at 0.6355/60, above which we could see a squeeze back to 0.6375-80 and then to 0.6400/10. Above here, unlikely in the near term, would allow a move towards 0.6420/25 and on to the trend high of 0.6450 (12 Sept). More distant levels to watch would be at 0.6466(38.2% of 0.6789/0.6269) and 0.6498 (9 August high) and at 0.6530 (50% pivot of 6789/0.6269). Trading from the short side is preferred and selling rallies with a SL placed above 0.6360.