21 Feb: Outlook: US$ pairs

By | February 21, 2017


EURUSD: 1.0615

EurUsd has had a rangebound session (1.0602/34) leaving the outlook unchanged.

The short term momentum indicators are flat on Tuesday offering little hint either way for the coming session.  The dailies though are beginning t look a little heavy, and back below 1.0600 would find minor Fibo support at 1.0580 and 1.0555 ahead of the recent 1.0520 low. A break of 1.0500 would allow for a quick move lower as there is not too much below their ahead of 1.0453 although this looks some way off. On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.0630/40 ahead of 1.0675/80. Above here looks unlikely, but we could potentially see a move back to 1.0700/10. For today, look for 1.0550/1.0650 to cover it.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.0797 3 Feb high 1.0604/00 17 Feb low/(50% pivot of 1.0520/1.0678)
1.0755 (76.4% of 1.0829/1.0520) 1.0580 (61.8% of 1.0520/1.0678)
1.0710 (61.8% of 1.0829/1.0520) 1.0555 (76.4% of 1.0520/1.0678)
1.0675/78 (50% of 1.0829/1.0520) /16 Feb high 1.0520 15 Feb low
1.0632 Session high 1.0500 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

EU Flash Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMIs, US Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, Fed’s Harker Speech, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

USDJPY: 113.11

US$Jpy is a little higher on Tuesday as it continues its recovery from Friday’s spike low.

The short term indicators look slightly more positive on Tuesday although the dailies still give little hint either way so another choppy session near 113.00 would not surprise. Below 112.60 could see a run towards 112.40, which should be good support, but a break of which would run towards 112.00 and possibly to the recent low at 111.58 although that seems some way off.  On the topside, today will see sellers at the various minor Fibo levels from the decline from last week’s high at 114.95. If 114.95 is taken out, unlikely today, there is little to stop the dollar heading on to 115.15/20, above which 115.60 would attract. A rangebound session looks most likely, using 112.40/113.40 as a guide.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
114.25 (61.8% of 114.95/113.12) 112.78 Session low
114.04 (50% pivot of 114.95/113.12) 112.60 17 Feb low
113.80 (38.2% of 114.95/113.12) 111.38 (76.4% of 111.58/114.95)
113.49/55 17 Feb high (23.6% of 114.95/113.12) 112.00 Minor
113.40 200 HMA 111.70 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Nikkei Flash Mfg PMI

GBPUSD: 1.2462

Cable had a better session on Tuesday in squeezing up from 1.2400 to a high of 1.2482, settling towards the upper end of the range. The choppy range of recent days looks set to continue although the short term momentum indicators do look a little more positive, and above the day’s high could see a run back to 1.2500 and above, where 1.2570/80 would provide decent resistance. On the downside, support will be seen at the 1.2400 low, below which could then head back to the 7 Feb, 1.2345 low.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.2570 (61.8% of 1.2700/1.2346) 1.2410 100 DMA
1.2548 14 Feb high 1.2387/82 17 Feb low /16 Feb low
1.2523 16 Feb high 1.2345 Daily Kijun/7 Feb low
1.2510 17 Feb high 1.2305 Daily cloud base
1.2482 Session high 1.2260 (61.8% of 1.1986/1.2705)

Economic data highlights will include:

PSNBR, BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech.

USDCHF: 1.0026

US$Chf has had a rangebound session (1.0010/43) leaving the outlook unchanged

The 4 hour and the dailies both look mildly positive, and having once again finished above the 100 DMA, adding to the cautiously bullish tone we could see a run back above the day’s high and on to 1.0100/20. The downside will find minor support at the 1.000 pivot ahead of the 17 Feb low of 0.9965.  Further bids would arrive at 0.9950/60, 0.9920 and 0.9900, below which would open the way 0.9870 although not today.  Buying dips still seems to be the plan given that the dailies look positive but keep a SL below 0.9955.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
1.0136 16 Jan high 1.0010 Session low
1.018/121 16 Feb high/19 Jan high 0.9965 17 Feb low
1.0085 Minor 0.9958 (61.8% of 0.9861/1.0118)
1.0050 Minor 0.9921 (76.4% of 0.9861/1.0118)
1.0043 Session high 0.9903 6 Feb high

AUDUSD: 0.7683

Monday has been quiet, with the Aud trading a tight 0.7658/89 range.

The momentum indicators are flat, and further choppy trade near current levels would not really surprise today although the RBA Minutes are due and could produce some volatility although this seems unlikely given that the RBA look to be on hold for quite a while to come. On the topside minor resistance will arrive at 0.7690/00 ahead of last Friday’s 0.7712 high, and then ahead of the 16 Feb, 0.7732 high. This looks unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, look for a run to 0.7750 where the descending trend resistance will provide a strong cap. On the downside, the minor rising trend support currently at 0.7675 will see bids but a break of which could then see the Aud head back towards 0.7550 and then to the lower end of the recent 0.7600/0.7700 range. In the absence of any data today, look for something like 0.7650/00 to cover it with direction likely to be decided by the RBA Minutes and more likely by any directional move in the US$.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7750 Descending trend resistance 0.7658/60 Session low/Rising trend support
0.7731 16 Feb high 0.7636 16 Feb low
0.7712 17 Feb high 0.7617 14 Feb low
0.7700 Minor 0.7605 7 Feb low
0.7689 Session high 0.7590 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

RBA Minutes.

NZDUSD: 0.7185

The Kiwi traded a tight 0.7170/0.7195 range on Monday.

The short term momentum indicators are flat on Tuesday, suggesting another fairly tight session, again possibly capped by 0.7200/10, although if we get above there we could head back to the 16 Feb high (0.7231), above which could then head towards 0.7255. Beyond there brings 0.7280/0.7300 into view, but not today. On the downside, the daily indicators remain bearish so selling into near term strength near 0.7200 is preferred, looking for a run back, below the session lows, towards minor support at 0.7150/60. Below here looks unlikely right now, but if wrong, look for a move towards 0.7135 and then to the very strong support at 0.7120/15. Global Dairy Trade Index today.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
0.7317 (76.4% of 0.7375/0.7133) 0.7169 Session low
0.7282 (61.8% of 0.7375/0.7133) 0.7155 Minor
0.7255 (50% of 0.7375/0.7133) 0.7134 14 Feb low
0.7242 16 Feb high 0.7120/15 200 DMA/100 DMA/55 DMA Converging/(50% of 0.6857/0.7375)
0.7220 17 Feb high 0.7070 13 Jan low

Economic data highlights will include:

Global Dairy Trade Index.