21 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 21, 2017


S&P: 2473
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Another day, another all-time high, today @ 2475.

With the daily momentum indicators pointing higher, further gains would seem likely in the days ahead although the short term charts are looking a little mixed today so some caution is warranted. A continuation of the squeeze to the topside would not surprise in the days ahead although note that the DJI has been unable to follow through to make new highs, so personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2495 Minor 2465 Session low
2490 Minor 2457 19 July low
2485 Minor 2447 18 July low
2480 Minor 2444 (23.6% of 2345/2475)
2475 Session high  -All-time high 2425 (38.2% of 2345/2475)

DJI: 21584
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Caution is the best plan here after another range trade day (21524/21623).

Resistance Support
21750 Minor 21502 19 July low
21700 Minor 21465 200 HMA
21650 Minor 21415 18 July low
21626 14 July high  – all-time high 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21623 Session high 21250 Minor

ASX SPI: 5687
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The ASX squeezed up to a high of 5717 on Thursday but then retreated to finish back at 5690, unchanged from the previous close and leaving the outlook unchanged.

The SPI remains in the middle of the recent wide range, mostly covered by the 100 DMA/200 DMA at 5765/5645 respectively. Looking to trade a range within 5670/5720 would seem to be the plan today, with the momentum indicators giving little hint in either direction.

Resistance Support
5785 Minor 5684 Session low
5765 100 DMA 5675 200 HMA
5745 4 July high 5641 19 July low/200 DMA
5729 14 July high 5600 18 July low
5717 Session high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)

XAUUSD: 1244
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips

Gold has again traded in sync with the US$, dipping to 1235 on early dollar strength, before turning sharply higher as weakness set in after the Trump news hit the wires.

The daily momentum indicators still seem to point to further gains in the days ahead although good resistance lies immediately above current levels and any progress may be slow. 1245/50 should be tough to crack, but above which could see a swift return to 1260.

The short term momentum indicators look rather neutral and if we fail to push higher, then on the downside, strong support will again be seen at 1235/30, below which 1225/1220 will provide back-up.

Once again, buying dips, with a tight SL placed below 1230 could be a plan.

Resistance Support
1265 Descending trend resistance 1235 19 July low  /Session low
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1255 28 June high 1225 Neckline
1250 (50% of 1295/1208) 1220 200 HMA
1247 100 DMA /Session high 1215 14 July low

XAGUSD: 16.32
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to buy dips

Silver recovered from an early dip to 16.13, spiking up to 16.42 on the Trump news before finishing at 16.30.

The dailies remain positive and if the session high can be overcome, we could be in for a run towards 16.50/55 above which would take a look at 16.75, although not yet I suspect as the short term momentum indicators do not have any real momentum behind them.

The downside will again find bids at 16.10/15, at 16.00 and at 15.85. Further out, 15.60 looks well protected ahead of 15.45.

Buying dips again looks to be the plan, with a SL now placed under 16.10.

Resistance Support
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.13 Session low
16.65 Minor 16.07 18 July low
16.50 (38.2% of 18.65/15.18) 15.96 17 July low
16.45 (50% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 15.85 200 HMA
16.42 Session high 15.60 14 July low

WTI: 46.91
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

WTI initially headed up to 47.71 before heading into reverse, and it eventually settled at 46.90 on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting offset recent data showing a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles for the third-straight week.

With the momentum indicators looking mixed, a cautious stance is needed at the end of the week.

The dailies remain mildly positive, and further gains beyond the 47.71 session high would allow a move towards 48.15 and possibly to 48.60, above which, the 200 DMA lies at 49.55.

On the downside, with the short term momentum indicators looking a little heavy, we could retest the session low, below which would find bids at 46.30. If we break that, support will then be seen at 45.75 and then at 44.95/45.00, below which could then see a run back to 43.65/75 although this now seems unlikely for a while.

Resistance Support
48.60 (50% pivot of 55.21/42.03) 46.79 Session low
48.35 100 DMA 46.30 19 July low
48.15 (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 45.77/79 14 July low/18 July low
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 44.96 13 July low
47.71 Session high 43.63 10 July low