21 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 21, 2019

Some big moves have emerged following the FOMC Meeting, which have been helped along by the rise in US/Iran tensions. The dollar is sharply lower and looks like it has further to go, while, on the other side of the coin, Gold, Oil and the Stock markets are sharply higher and appear to be building for further gains.

A bit rushed today…so only a brief outlook…full updtae on Monday.

EurUsd:  The Euro took advantage of the dollar’s weakness and reached 1.1316 on Thursday before closing back below 1.200 but looking mildly positive on the medium term charts. The initial resistance will be seen at 1.1307 (76.4% of 1.1346/1.1180) and at 1.1315. Beyond there would target 1.1345/50 (7 June high/200 DMA), ahead of 1.1390 (61.8% of 1.1569/1.1105) and 1.1447 (20 March high).On the downside, intraday support will be seen at 1.1270, 1.1250 and at the session low of 1.1225. A fairly neutral stance is required today, but overall, buying dips with a SL placed below 1.1.1225 may be the plan on Friday

DXY:  (96.65) The DXY is turning lower on the daily charts although momentum is weak and a rather cautious stance is required. The index has found support at the 200 DMA (96.55) but a break of the 7 June low at 96.46 would open the way to 96.00 and possibly to the 20 March low of 95.74. Nearby resistance lies at 96.85 (minor), 97.05 (100 DMA) and again at 97.20 beyond which could allow a run to 97.50. With the index looking weak, maybe selling a break of the 200 DMA is a plan but I remain cautious, given the weak momentum on the daily charts, an prefer to look for a range trade on Friday.

US$Jpy: headed sharply lower on Thursday, reaching 107.20 (61.8% of 104.00/112.40) and looking very heavy on the charts. Having taken out some important support levels, further declines would allow for a run to 107.00 and then to minor levels at 106.80, 106.50, 106.20 ahead of the next Fibo level at 105.98 (76.4% of 104.00/112.40). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 107.50 (minor) ahead of   107.80, 108.00 and 108.14 (Session high). Selling rallies now seems to be the plan, with safe haven demand being the dominant theme.

US$Chf:  is sharply lower on Friday as safe haven demand for the Chf increased and helped to send the pair down to a low of 0.9791 before ending the day at 0.9805. The move has seen the dollar head below both the 200 WMA (0.9845) and the 100 WMA (0.9830) and these will now act as resistance. Above here would open the way back to 0.9875 and to 0.9900 although the charts suggest that this is unlikely today. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9780/90, below which there is little to stop the dollar falling to 0.9715 (10 Jan low). Selling rallies seems to be the theme for the time being.

AudUsd:  The Aud has taken advantage of the US$ weakness and reached a session high of 0.6935, falling just short of the resistance seen at 0.6948 (61.8% of 0.7020/0.6831). The short term momentum indicators are mixed on Friday, but the 4 hourlies look positive and this level could yet be taken out, beyond which would allow for a move to 0.6965 (minor) and then to 0.6977 (76.4% of 0.7020/0.6831) and back to 0.7000.  The daily momentum indicators look a little more positive too, but without too much upside momentum, and on the downside, 0.6900 now provides support ahead of 0..6870/80, and 0.6850. Further out, a break of 0.6850 would open the way back to 0.6830 and the January 2016 low at 0.6826.


*Trade of the day: June 21, 2019; 6:22 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1385. SL @ 1.1405, TP @ 1.1285

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1250. SL @ 1.1220, TP @ 1.1350

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6950. SL @ 0.6975, TP @ 0.6885

Buy AudUsd @0.6890. SL @ 0.6865, TP @ 0.6965