21 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 21, 2019

The US$ is sharply lower against all the majors today, with the exception of Sterling which has its own issues to deal with. From a technical perspective it looks as though the pressure is going to remain on the downside in the medium term for the dollar, albeit that it is becoming oversold in the short term, so a mild recovery may be in order over the next 24 hours.

The Euro is sitting at 1.1420 (61.8% of 1.1569/1.1756) and the charts now hint at the chance of a run towards the 76.4% level at 1.1475 and the 200 WMA at 1.1480, while bids will be seen at 1.1400/1.1390 and again at 1.1365 (100 DMA/55DMA).

US$Chf is sitting on the 200 DMA and Fibo support (23.6% of 0.9187/1.0128), a break of which would hints at a run towards 0.9850 and possibly to 0.9775 (38.2%).

AudUsd shot up to a high of 0.7150 following the Fed announcement but is now back at 0.7115. The short term momentum indicators are pointing higher although the upside may be rather limited and I would be surprised to see the Aud$ make further significant gains today. Having said that, the downside seems rather limited, from a technical perspective, but any directional move today will derive from the Australian Jobs data. I still prefer to sell rallies given that the RBA seem to be heading for a rate cut, or two, later in the year.

US$Jpy has broken down through some important technical levels and needs to close the week above 110.75 (200 WMA) to avoid further downside momentum. Right now, the short term momentum indicators look heavy though and selling rallies towards 111.00 with a tight 25/35 point SL may be a plan

With all the action being in the US$, the crosses are best left alone although Sterling seems to be under downside pressure, particularly against the Euro, where a break of 0.8675 could lead to a run towards 0.8715/25

The US stock indices have been choppy but still seem to be a buy on dips, albeit with a tight SL in place.

WTI finished Wednesday just above 60.00 and the next major resistance is not seen until 61.75 (200 DMA). Keep a SL just below 58.00, as a failure to carry on may see a reversal to the downside as longs rush for the exit.


*Trade of the day: March 21, 2019; 8:54 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1475. SL @ 1.1505, TP @ 1.1375

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1385. SL @ 1.1335, TP @ 1.1465

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7140. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7040

Buy AudUsd @ 7065. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.7110

Sell US$Jpy @ 111.00. SL @ 111.35, TP @ 110.00

Buy EurGbp @ 0.8620. SL @ 0.8580, TP @ 0.8720

Buy WTI @ 59.00. SL @ 57.90, TP @ 61.00