21 Feb Outlook: Commodities, Stock Indices

By | February 21, 2017


S+P: 2352

Despite being a US holiday the S+P ended Monday having squeezed up a few points to a new all time high (2356).

The short term charts mixed and offer little hint either way although the dailies point higher so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue. On the downside, support will be seen at 2040/45 below which further support lies at 2330 and then 2320. We are only a few points from the new all-time high though and as before, while the “Trump effect” continues it would appear that the rally may carry on until we see some clarity on his economic plans. Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2390 2345 Session low
2380 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2370 Minor 2320 14 Feb low
2360 Minor 2313 13 Feb low
2356 Session high /All time high 2300 Minor

DJI: 20627

Ditto S+P

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
20850 Minor 20566 Session low
20800 Minor 20505 17 Feb low
20750 Minor 20466 16 Feb low
20700 Minor 20344 14 Feb low
20670 Session high /All time high 20224 13 Feb low

ASX SPI: 5745

The ASX traded within its familiar range on Monday (5728/5762), ending up pretty much unchanged from the weekend and leaving the outlook unchanged.

Once again, the 4 hour charts continue to unwind, capping the topside in the near term although the dailies are still constructive, so a similar range seems possible again today. If we do see a directional move, then above last week’s high of 5778, look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. On the downside, support will again be seen at 5730/25,  a break of which could see a run back to 5700, albeit unlikely today. As with yesterday, buying dips still seems the plan, with a SL placed below the day’s low of 5728.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5814 May 2015 high 5728 Session low
5700 Minor 5715 Minor
5789 9 Jan high 5697 14 Feb low
5778 16 Feb high 5675 Minor
5768 17 Feb high 5650 Minor

GOLD: 1237

Gold traded another tight range on 1232/38, leaving the outlook unchanged..

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed so further rangebound trade seems likely with the 200 WMA at 1244 again providing a strong cap. If we do see a topside break, we could see a run towards 1255 and 1265 although probably not today. On the downside, support will be seen at 1230/32 and then again at 1215/20. A neutral stance is required, but I mildly prefer to trade from the long side, but with a tight SL placed near 1210.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1263 200 DMA 12334/32 17 Feb low/16 Feb low
1255 (61.8% of 1337/1222) 1216 16 Feb low /100 DMA
1248 (50% pivot of 1375/1222) 1207 3 Feb low
1244 10 Feb high 1200/1198 100 WMA /2 Feb low
1243/42 17 Feb high/200 WMA 1188 30 Jan low

SILVER: 18.04

Silver had another tight, rangebound session on Monday (17.92/18.07) leaving the outlook unchanged.

The short term momentum indicators are flat, suggesting another sideways session although the dailies remain mildly constructive so we could yet be in for a move to 18.20 and to 18.45, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, the initial support will again be seen at 18.00/17.90, and again at 17.75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is mildly preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 17.90.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.98 10 Nov high 18.00/17.92 200 WMA /Session low
18.65 Minor 17.90 200 DMA
18.45 Descending Trend Resistance 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows
18.20 (76.4% of 18.98/15.63) 17.55 10 Feb low
18.14 16 Feb high 17.45 6 Feb low

OIL (WTI): 53.96

WTI traded a little higher on Monday, heading to the initial resistance level above 54.00, which has so far held but has closed the session nearby and looks as though it may want to have another try at the topside in the coming session.

A cautious stance is again required but if we break above 54.30 we could see an acceleration towards 55.20. Beyond that, there is again not too much to stop it heading to 56.90/57.00 although this is a long way off. On the downside, support will be seen at 53.70, at 53.00, and again at 52.70/30 although equally, this seems unlikely to be bothered today. While pretty much neutral, I still mildly prefer to trade from the long side and buying dips is mildly preferred.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
56.90 (38.2% of 1.0765/26.03) 53.70 Session low
56.00 Minor 53.26 17 Feb low /200 HMA
55.21 3 Jan high 52.96 16 Feb low
55.00 Minor 52.71 16 Feb low
54.21/31 Session high /6 Jan high 52.34 10 Feb low