22 Feb Forecast: Commodities, Stock Indices

By | February 22, 2017

 

S+P: 2362

The slow squeeze to new all time highs continues, with the S+P today reaching 2364.

The short term charts and the dailies all now point higher so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue as we head slowly towards 2400. On the downside, support will be seen at 2345/50 below which further support lies at 2330 and then 2320. I would rather not be involved at these levels although the slow squeeze higher looks set to continue. Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2400 Minor 2348/45 Session low/20 Feb low
2390 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2380 Minor 2320 14 Feb low
2370 Minor 2313 13 Feb low
2364 Session high /All time high 2300 Minor


DJI: 20703

Ditto S+P. A slow move towards 21000 seems to be on the cards.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
20900 Minor 20601 Session low
20850 Minor 20566 20 Feb low
20800 Minor 20505 17 Feb low
20750 Minor 20466 16 Feb low
20733 Session high  /All time high 20344 14 Feb low


ASX SPI: 5765

The ASX had another range bound session within the recent parameters and something similar could be on the cards today, although the short term momentum indicators do appear to be turning a little higher so we may possibly be in for a test of the topside. If we do see a directional move, then above last week’s high of 5778, look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. On the downside, support will again be seen at 5730/25,  a break of which could see a run back to 5700, albeit unlikely today. As with yesterday, buying dips still seems the plan, with a SL placed below the day’s low of 5728.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5814 May 2015 high 5727 Session low
5700 Minor 5715 Minor
5789 9 Jan high 5697 14 Feb low
5778 16 Feb high 5675 Minor
5768/64 17 Feb high /Session high 5650 Minor


GOLD: 1237

Gold has been choppy today but has remained within the recent range and more of the same appears likely in the session ahead.

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are neutral, giving little hint either way, so further rangebound trade seems likely, with the 200 WMA at 1244 again providing a strong cap. If we do see a topside break, we could see a run towards 1255 and 1265 although probably not today. On the downside, support will be seen at the day’s low of 1226 and then again at 1215/20. A neutral stance is required, but I mildly prefer to trade from the long side, but with a tight SL placed near 1220/25.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1263 200 DMA 1226 Session low
1255 (61.8% of 1337/1222) 1216 16 Feb low /100 DMA
1248 (50% pivot of 1375/1222) 1207 3 Feb low
1243/42 17 Feb high/200 WMA 1200/1198 100 WMA /2 Feb low
1238 Session high 1188 30 Jan low


SILVER: 17.98

Silver has been choppy on Tuesday, trading a 17.83/18.08 range but finishing pretty much unchanged from yesterday, leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are flat, suggesting another sideways session although the dailies remain mildly constructive so we could yet be in for a move to 18.20 and to 18.45, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, the initial support will be seen at 17.90/85, and again at 17.75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is mildly preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 17.85.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.98 10 Nov high 18.00 200 WMA
18.65 Minor 17.90 200 DMA
18.45 Descending Trend Resistance 17.83 Session low
18.20 (76.4% of 18.98/15.63) 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows
18.14 16 Feb high 17.55 10 Feb low


OIL (WTI): 54.35

WTI took out 54.30 resistance and reached the 55.00 target today and looks as though it may have the legs for further gains although in the short term it has came back to sit at the 54.30 level and may choose to chop around here  for a while.

Above 55.00 would see sellers at 55.20 but beyond that, there is not too much to stop it heading 57.00 although this is a long way off at this stage. On the downside, support will be seen at the recent lows at 53.90/70, at 53.00, and again at 52.70/30 although equally, this seems unlikely to be bothered today. While cautious, I still mildly prefer to trade from the long side, looking for a break of 55.00 and then a run towards 57.00. Buying a break of 55.30 may be a plan, with a SL placed below 55.00 in case of a failure to carry on.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
57.10 (38.2% of 107.65 /26.03) 53.90 Minor
56.50 Minor 53.70 20 Feb low
56.00 Minor 53.26 17 Feb low /200 HMA
55.21 3 Jan high 52.96 16 Feb low
55.00 Session high 52.71 16 Feb low