22 Jul: US$ firm after WSJ hints at a 25bp Fed cut on July 31. ECB Meeting, Brexit & US Q2 GDP in focus this week.

By | July 22, 2019

Friday reversed the moves of Thursday, when the US$ and metals had weakened on the back of the dovish comments from the Fed’s William’s, who had hinted at a more aggressive easing plan  from the Fed than had previously been expected.  Instead, after a mostly consolidative session on Friday, some late headlines saw the dollar regain some ground, inspired by a WSJ report that any rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting will likely only be by 25bp and not 50bp. The dollar immediately headed higher while Gold and Silver fell sharply. At around the same time, it was reported that Iran had seized 2 UK flagged vessels, which did the stock markets no favours as traders took profits ahead of the weekend, and saw the US indices drop by around 0.5% late in the session. Despite the Iran tensions, WTI was choppy but finished pretty much unchanged on the day.

The coming week will have a fairly thin calendar although there will be some large items on the agenda to provide some directional movement. The highlight will probably be the ECB Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference on Thursday, at which further easing bias may be announced, which would not do the Euro any good. Monday and Tuesday don’t have much to go on, but Wednesday will see the global flash PMIs, and Thursday/Friday, aside from the ECB, will concentrate on the US data ahead of next week’s FOMC Meeting. Thursday looks to the June Durable Goods Orders and Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, while Friday sees the Preliminary Q2 US GDP and US Personal Consumption/Expenditure figures. Have a good week.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: UK CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Orders, Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tue: UK CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised, BOE Haldane Speech, US House Price Index, Existing Home Sales, EU Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Wed: NZ Trade Balance, Japan Nikkei Flash Mfg PMI, Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index, EU/US Flash PMIs,  US New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change

Thur: RBA Governor Lowe Speech, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, ECB Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference, US Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, Jobless Claims

Fri: Tokyo CPI, US GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.13 (+0.46%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.058% (+1.59%), German 10Y; -0.321% (-3.7%), UK 10Y; 0.736% (-3.17%), Australian 10Y; 1.36% (+0.21%), NZ 10Y; 1.58% (-0.32 %), China 10Y; 3.19% (+0.73%)

Stock Indices: DJI; xxxx%, S+P; xx%, NASDAQ; xxxx%, EUStoxx50; xxxx%, FTSE100; xxxx%, Shanghai Composite; xxxx%,

Metals: Gold $1425 oz (-1.4%), Silver $16.20 oz (-1.2%), Copper $2.7525 lb (+1.57%), Iron Ore $121.00 per tonne (NYMEX) (+0.10%),

Oil: WTI $55.72 pb (+0.20%)

EURUSD: 1.1219
Res  1.1240  1.1265  1.1285
Sup  1.1200  1.1180  1.1160
USDJPY: 107.70
Res  108.00  108.25  108.50
Sup  107.50  107.25  106.95
GBPUSD: 1.2502
Res  1.2535  1.2560  1.2585
Sup  1.2475  1.2450  1.2425
USDCHF: 0.9815
Res  0.9835  0.9860  0.9885
Sup  0.9800  0.9775  0.9750
AUDUSD: 0.7044
Res  0.7060  0.7075  0.7090
Sup  0.7030  0.7015  0.7000
NZDUSD: 0.6761
Res  0.6780  0.6800  0.6820
Sup  0.6740  0.6720  0.6695
S&P.fs: 2971.28
Res  2985.00  3000.00  3015.00
Sup  2965.00  2950.00  2935.00
DJ30.fs: 27090.50
Res  27245.00  27410.00  27610.00
Sup  27000.00  26845.00  26695.00
SPI200.fs: 6617
Res  6625  6635  6645
Sup  6605  6595  6585
XAUUSD: 1424.99
Res  1440.00  1450.00  1460.00
Sup  1415.00  1405.00  1395.00
XAGUSD: 16.20
Res  16.35  16.60  16.80
Sup  16.05  15.85  15.65
WTI.fs: 55.89
Res  56.65  57.75  58.90
Sup  54.75  53.75  52.55