22-Mar-17: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 22, 2017

After plenty of days of choppy trade, we at last seem to have something a little more directional to play with. The stock-markets look to me to be standing on the edge of a precipice, although we have been here many times before so some caution is warranted, but all the time frames, including the weeklies are beginning to look as though a top may be in place. Given the confusion in the current US administration over the fiscal policies, a deeper selloff would not surprise. If we do see lower stocks, expect a rush for safe haven assets (Yen, Chf and Gold) and an exit from risk currencies (Aud, Kiwi). The US$ looks in trouble against the EU majors, with Cable in particular looking healthy, although Brexit/politics could quickly dent any enthusiasm there. WTI looks to be in trouble and will take its direction from the outcome of the coming session’s EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change report.

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*Trade of the day: 3/22/2017 9:08 AM (AET)

But EURUSD @ 1.0780 SL @ 1.0735 TP @ 1.0875.

I think that selling US stocks (or possibly the ASX) at around current levels may also be an option (DJ 20,605, S+P 2342, ASX 5715), with a SL placed above the respective Tuesday highs.

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

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EURUSD

USDJPY

GBPUSD

USDCHF

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

1 Hour

Turning lower?

Down– Becoming Oversold

Turning lower

Turning higher

Turning lower

Turning lower

4 Hour

Up –Bearish Divergence

Down– Becoming Oversold

Up

Turning lower

Down.

Turning lower

Day

Up

Turning lower

Turning higher

Turning lower

Turning higher

Up

Week

Turning higher

Down

Turning higher

Turning lower?

Turning higher?

Neutral

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

DJI

ASX SPI

GOLD

SILVER

OIL-WTI

1 Hour

Down

Down

Down

Up

Neutral

Down

4 Hour

Down

Down

Down

Up

Neutral – Turning higher?

Turning lower

 

Day

Down

Down

Turning lower

Neutral -Turning higher?

Neutral – Turning higher?

Down –Possible basing formation.

Week

Turning lower?

Turning lower?

Turning lower?

Neutral -Turning higher?

Neutral

Turning lower

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURJPY

EURGBP

GBPAUD

AUDJPY

EURAUD

AUDNZD

1 Hour

Turning lower

Neutral

Up –Overbought.

Down –Oversold

Up –Overbought.

Down

4 Hour

Turning lower

Neutral

Turning higher

Down

Neutral- Turning higher?

Turning lower

Day

Neutral

Turning lower?

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Turning lower

Week

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Possible topping formation.

Turning higher

Up

 


Green= Possible Buy Opportunity.

Red = Possible Sell Opportunity.

The products marked in red/green suggest either a short term (1hour/4 hour charts), a medium term trend (4 hour/daily charts) or a longer term trend, where the dailies are aligned or seem to be aligning with the weekly indicators.

The shorter term (1+4 hour)) momentum indicators may also be aligned with the longer term charts, but equally likely, they may be pointing in the opposite direction and may suggest a buy or sell level on a pullback, in which case they may show a short term bias that differs from the longer term trend. In order to work out the short term trades, or to look for levels at which to enter the market hoping to take advantage of the longer term trend, this table should be used in conjunction with the daily outlook on www.fxcharts.net using the buy/sell support/resistance levels mentioned in the individual currency pairs, commodities or indices as a guide.

The trend tables are based on the direction of the oscillators for the various time frames, using a combination of MACDs, RSIs and Slow Stochastics.