22 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 22, 2019

The US$ has regained all of the lost ground of the previous session, and while the longer term charts are mixed, suggesting more consolidation type trade, the short term momentum indicators are pointing to the chance of further dollar gains against the Euro, Aud$ and the Kiwi although I don’t think we see too much directionally today unless the PMIs spring a surprise. The one thing that could change the consolidation view over the next week is that the Brexit date is due in 8 days time. If the UK parliament fail to pass the current version of Theresa May’s exit plan, then a “no-deal” split looks highly likely, which would see Sterling dive much lower, taking the Euro with it and sending the US$ sharply higher.

As with yesterday, with all the action being in the US$ pairs, the crosses are probably best left alone although Sterling once again seems to be under downside pressure, particularly against the Euro, which reached the 0.8715/25 target on Thursday, but now back at 0.8677 would again seem to be a buy on dips.

The US stock indices have been choppy but still seem to be a buy on dips, albeit with a tight SL in place.

WTI finished Thursday at close to 60.00 and maybe running out of some upside momentum. I still prefer the upside though and, on a clean break higher, the next major resistance is not seen until 61.75 (200 DMA). Keep a SL just below 58.00, as a failure to carry on may see a reversal to the downside as longs rush for the exit.

Keep an eye on Silver as the daily charts hint that a possible head/shoulder formation is forming. The neckline is not seen until 14.90, but if it breaks, the target is at around the November low at 13.90.


*Trade of the day: March 21, 2019; 08:30AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1400. SL @ 1.1450, TP @ 1.1300

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1285. SL @ 1.1245, TP @ 1.1385

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7140. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7040

Buy AudUsd @ 7065. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.7110

Buy EurGbp @ 0.8650. SL @ 0.8610, TP @ 0.8720

Buy WTI @ 59.00. SL @ 57.90, TP @ 61.00

Sell Silver @ 15.75. SL @ 16.05, TP @ 14.75