22 Nov: US$ mixed; stocks, oil bounce. US Thanksgiving Day ahead. Quiet session expected

By | November 22, 2018

The US$ is mixed on Thursday, with market sentiment stabilising somewhat on the back of a bounce in the stockmarkets after two days of steep declines. The commodity currencies are firmer, the EU majors more or less unchanged and the Yen mildly weaker, as safe haven demand subsides given that US stocks are heading into the session close up by around 0.8%-1.2%. The US$ itself was somewhat subdued and not helped at all by some soft US data, with the October durable goods orders  at -4.4% (vs -2.6% expected) while  core durable goods rose 0.1%, below estimates for a 0.4% rise.

WTI has had a bounce, up 2.2% while the metals are also firm (+0.5%), mostly on the back of the softer dollar.

Elsewhere, the EU has, as expected, rejected the Italian Budget plan, and Italy is now facing EU sanctions. As with Brexit, this story won’t go away and seems likely to create headwinds for the Euro.

Looking ahead, it seems set to be a choppy and directionless session given the US Thanksgiving holiday and liquidity will be thin. Pints of interest though will include the NZ Visitor Arrivals, Japan CPI, UK Inflation Report Hearing and ECB Minutes as well as the Preliminary EU Consumer Confidence for November.

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: US Thanksgiving Day, NZ Visitor Arrivals, Japan CPI, UK Inflation Report Hearing, ECB Minutes, EU Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1391
Res  1.1425  1.1445  1.1470
Sup  1.1360  1.1340  1.1320
USDJPY: 113.03
Res  113.15  113.40  113.65
Sup  112.85  112.60  112.30
GBPUSD: 1.2787
Res  1.2815  1.2850  1.2885
Sup  1.2760  1.2725  1.2690
USDCHF: 0.9942
Res  0.9960  0.9980  1.0005
Sup  0.9925  0.9910  0.9885
AUDUSD: 0.7264
Res  0.7275  0.7300  0.7325
Sup  0.7250  0.7225  0.7200
NZDUSD: 0.6837
Res  0.6855  0.6870  0.6885
Sup  0.6825  0.6810  0.6795
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2665
Res  2670  2685  2700
Sup  2650  2630  2615
DJ30.fs: 24629
Res  24675  24775  24940
Sup  24485  24350  24075
SPI200.fs: 5668
Res  5690  5715  5740
Sup  5645  5620  5595
XAUUSD: 1227
Res  1230  1235  1240
Sup  1225  1220  1215
XAGUSD: 14.49
Res  14.55  14.65  14.75
Sup  14.40  14.30  14.20
WTI.fs: 54.86
Res  55.60  56.50  57.50
Sup  54.15  53.25  52.70