22 Oct: Markets ended the week mixed. ECB Meeting and US GDP, with Italian budget proposals in focus this week.

By | October 22, 2018

 

Friday ended mixed, with a mostly sideways session although the US$ gave up a bit of ground, with the DXY closing the week at 95.64.  Over the weekend, the Australian Liberal Party lost the long-held Wentworth by-election, so keep an eye on the Aud$ today, which may come under a bit of pressure due to the fact that we now have a hung parliament, and may cause a bit of downside pressure.

It is a NZ holiday today, meaning an extra quiet start to the week, and for much of the week the calendar does look rather thin although the ECB Interest Rate Decision is due on Thursday although no change is expected to Monetary Policy and the focus will be on Mario Draghi’s Press Conference. Italy is due to report its 2019 budget proposal on Tuesday and this is expected to be rejected by the EU and is likely to add head-winds to any sustained recovery in the Euro, so for the medium term outlook I still like to sell rallies. The other major events of the week will be the global flash PMIs (Wed), US Durable Goods Orders (Thursday – exp 0.3%mm – ex Transportation) and then on Friday’s Preliminary Q3 GDP (exp 3.3%yy) and US Personal Consumption/Expenditure.

The rest of the week will feature the following:

Mon: NZ Labor Day Holiday, BuBa Monthly Report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tue: German PPI, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, EU Preliminary Consumer Confidence, Fed’s Kashkari Speech

Wed: Japan/EU/US Preliminary PMIs,

Thur: NZ Trade Balance, German Consumer Confidence Survey, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade Balance, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity

Fri: Japan – Tokyo CPI, US GDP/US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, ECB Speeches – Draghi/Coeure

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1514
Res  1.1535  1.1565  1.1600
Sup  1.1480  1.1455  1.1430
USDJPY: 112.53
Res  112.75  113.05  113.30
Sup  112.25  111.95  111.60
GBPUSD: 1.3066
Res  1.3105  1.3130  1.3170
Sup  1.3035  1.3010  1.2980
USDCHF: 0.9960
Res  0.9975  1.0010  1.0065
Sup  0.9915  0.9875  0.9845
AUDUSD: 0.7119
Res  0.7140  0.7160  0.7195
Sup  0.7090  0.7070  0.7040
NZDUSD: 0.6589
Res  0.6605  0.6620  0.6640
Sup  0.6575  0.6555  0.6525
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2767
Res  2785  2800  2820
Sup  2755  2745  2730
DJ30.fs: 25434
Res  25595  25720  25845
Sup  25330  25210  25100
SPI200.fs: 5905
Res  5935  5960  5985
Sup  5890  5870  5845
XAUUSD: 1226
Res  1230  1235  1240
Sup  1220  1215  1210
XAGUSD: 14.62
Res  14.70  14.85  15.00
Sup  14.50  14.40  14.25
WTI.fs: 69.51
Res  69.85  70.45  71.00
Sup  68.45  69.10  67.90