Friday ended mixed, with a mostly sideways session although the US$ gave up a bit of ground, with the DXY closing the week at 95.64. Over the weekend, the Australian Liberal Party lost the long-held Wentworth by-election, so keep an eye on the Aud$ today, which may come under a bit of pressure due to the fact that we now have a hung parliament, and may cause a bit of downside pressure.
It is a NZ holiday today, meaning an extra quiet start to the week, and for much of the week the calendar does look rather thin although the ECB Interest Rate Decision is due on Thursday although no change is expected to Monetary Policy and the focus will be on Mario Draghi’s Press Conference. Italy is due to report its 2019 budget proposal on Tuesday and this is expected to be rejected by the EU and is likely to add head-winds to any sustained recovery in the Euro, so for the medium term outlook I still like to sell rallies. The other major events of the week will be the global flash PMIs (Wed), US Durable Goods Orders (Thursday – exp 0.3%mm – ex Transportation) and then on Friday’s Preliminary Q3 GDP (exp 3.3%yy) and US Personal Consumption/Expenditure.
The rest of the week will feature the following:
Mon: NZ Labor Day Holiday, BuBa Monthly Report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tue: German PPI, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, EU Preliminary Consumer Confidence, Fed’s Kashkari Speech
Wed: Japan/EU/US Preliminary PMIs,
Thur: NZ Trade Balance, German Consumer Confidence Survey, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade Balance, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity
Fri: Japan – Tokyo CPI, US GDP/US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, ECB Speeches – Draghi/Coeure
|INDICES / COMMODITIES|