23 Feb: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | February 23, 2017

 

S+P: 2360

The S+P has traded sideways following the release of the FOMC Minutes (2355/2363), leaving the outlook unchanged.

The dailies still point higher, so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue as we head slowly towards 2400. On the downside, the 1 and 4 hour charts now hint at the chance of a slight drift lower. If so, support will be seen at 2345/55 below which further support lies at 2330 and then 2320. I would rather not be involved at these levels although the slow squeeze higher looks set to continue and buying dips seems to be the plan. Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2400 Minor 2355 Session low
2390 Minor 2348/45 21 Feb low/20 Feb low
2380 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2370 Minor 2320 14 Feb low
2364 21 Feb high /All time high 2313 13 Feb low

DJI: 20741

Unlike the S+P, the DJI made another all time high today (20755) but it had no real follow-through and it currently trades back towards 20700.  A slow move towards 21000 seems to be on the cards and buying near term dips still seems to be the plan.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
21000 Minor 20665 Session low
20900 Minor 20601 21 Feb low
20850 Minor 20566 20 Feb low
20800 Minor 20505 17 Feb low
20755 Session high  /All time high 20466 16 Feb low

ASX SPI: 5759

The ASX has traded sideways following the release of the FOMC Minutes (5745/5774), leaving the outlook unchanged.

The SPI has had another rangebound session within the recent parameters and something similar could be on the cards today, although the CAPEX figures may decide otherwise.  The short term momentum indicators are flat, giving no real hint either way, but if we do see a directional move, then on  the topside, above last week’s high of 5778 look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. On the downside, support will again be seen 5745 and at 5730/25. A break of this could see a run back to 5700, albeit unlikely today. As with yesterday, with the dailies still looking constructive, buying dips still seems the plan with a SL placed below 5725.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5814 May 2015 high 5745 Session low
5700 Minor 5727 21 Feb low
5789 9 Jan high 5715 Minor
5778 16 Feb high 5697 14 Feb low
5774 Session high 5675 Minor

GOLD: 1239

Gold has traded sideways following the release of the FOMC Minutes (1231/40), leaving the outlook unchanged

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are neutral again, giving little hint either way, so further rangebound trade seems likely, with the 200 WMA at 1244 again providing a strong cap. If we do see a topside break, we could see a run towards 1255 and 1265 although probably not today. On the downside, support will be seen at 1225/30 and then again at 1215/20. A neutral stance is required, but I mildly prefer to trade from the long side, but with a tight SL placed at around 1220.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1263 200 DMA 1231 Session low
1255 (61.8% of 1337/1222) 1226 21 Feb low
1248 (50% pivot of 1375/1222) 1216 16 Feb low /100 DMA
1243/42 17 Feb high/200 WMA 1207 3 Feb low
1240 Session high 1200/1198 100 WMA /2 Feb low

SILVER: 18.05

Silver has traded sideways following the release of the FOMC Minutes (17.98/18.05), leaving the outlook unchanged

As before, the short term momentum indicators are flat, suggesting another sideways session ahead although the dailies remain mildly constructive so we could yet be in for a move to 18.20 and to 18.45, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, the initial support will be seen at 17.90/85, and again at 17.75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is mildly preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 17.85.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.98 10 Nov high 18.00 200 WMA
18.65 Minor 17.90/92 200 DMA  /Session low
18.45 Descending Trend Resistance 17.83 21 Feb low
18.20 (76.4% of 18.98/15.63) 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows
18.14 16 Feb high 17.55 10 Feb low

OIL (WTI): 53.57

WTI settled about 1% lower on Wednesday, despite a late slump in the dollar after the release of the Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) minutes, and currently trades around 53.50.

The short term momentum indicators now look a little heavy and on the downside, we could head back to minor support seen at the session low at 53.35, at 53.00, and again at 52.70. Below there could see a run back to 52.00/51.70 although this seems unlikely. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 54.00, at the session high of 54.58 and at the previous session high at 55.00. Although unlikely today, above 55.00 would see sellers at 55.20, but beyond that there is not too much to stop it heading 57.00 although this is a long way off at this stage

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
56.00 Minor 53.55 200 HMA
55.21 3 Jan high 53.35 Session low
55.00 21 Feb high 53.26 17 Feb low
54.50 Minor 52.71 16 Feb low
5400 100 HMA 52.20 8 Feb low