23 Nov: Markets mixed ahead of US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC Minutes.

By | November 23, 2016

Markets have generally traded sideways on Tuesday with the US$ unable to take advantage of the strong U.S. home sales, which rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years to an annual rate of 5.6 million in October, the highest level since February 2007. At the same time, the September figure was revised up to 5.49 million from the previously reported 5.47 million units.

The global flash PMIs will be the early focus on Wednesday ahead of a heavy US schedule, which sees the October Durable Goods Orders (exp 1.5%, Ex-Auto; 0.2%), Oct New Home Sales (exp 0.59 mio) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index  (exp 91.6). Having got all that out of the way, the FOMC Minutes will be released, with the market looking for further guidance as to the possibility of a December rate hike. It could become quite choppy late in the day as plenty of traders will be looking to square up ahead of the US Thanksgiving long weekend.It is a Japan holiday, which will impact on interest/liquidity.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0625
Res  1.0660  1.0695  1.0745
Sup  1.0570  1.0520  1.0500
USDJPY: 111.13
Res  111.35  111.50  111.85
Sup  110.80  110.45  110.25
GBPUSD: 1.2418
Res  1.2465  1.2510  1.2555
Sup  1.2380  1.2345  1.2305
USDCHF: 1.0114
Res  1.0135  1.0150  1.0195
Sup  1.0085  1.0050  1.0065
AUDUSD: 0.7399
Res  0.7415  0.7435  0.7450
Sup  0.7375  0.7360  0.7335
NZDUSD: 0.7052
Res  0.7085  0.7110  0.7145
Sup  0.7030  0.6985  0.6935
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2199
Res  2202  2210  2220
Sup  2190  2180  2170
DJI: 18980
Res  19000  19050  19100
Sup  18915  18835  18790
ASX SPI: 5428
Res  5440  5460  5480
Sup  5400  5380  5360
GOLD: 1211
Res  1222  1230  1240
Sup  1202  1190  1180
SILVER: 16.63
Res  16.90  17.00  17.15
Sup  16.45  16.25  16.00
OIL (WTI): 48.06
Res  48.50  49.15  49.80
Sup  47.60  47.10  46.45

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2199
Resistance Support
2220 Minor 2191 Session low
2215 Minor 2185 Minor
2210 Minor 2178/75 21 Nov low/200 HMA
2205 Minor 2160 (23.6% of 2028/2202)
2202 Session high /All time high 2150 100 DMA

Bias

All the major US indices made new all-time highs today, with the S+P being no exception in reaching 2202.

It is not so far away from the right now and with the dailies still looking constructive it is not out of the question that we could now see a test of higher ground although I would be doubtful of running away to the topside ahead of the FOMC Minutes and then the Thanksgiving long weekend, beginning on Thursday. On the downside, below the 2191 session low will find bids at 2180 and then there is further support at 2160. For the time being a neutral stance is required, but given the look of the dailies, buying near term dips still seems to be the longer term plan.sp

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips

DJI Futures 18980
Resistance Support
19400 Minor 18911 Session low
19300 Minor 18832 21 Nov low
19200 Minor 18792 16 Nov low
19100 Minor 18755 15 Nov low
19000 Session high  /All time high 18682 11 Nov low

Bias

The DJI traded at 19000 for the first time on Tuesday, closing the US session close by, and while the 4 hour momentum indicators still suggest limited upside momentum, the dailies remain positive so buying dips still seems to be the plan.  A cautious stance is required and further rangebound trade seems likely as we await the FOMC Minutes and the Durable Goods Orders.dji

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips

ASX SPI 5428
Resistance Support
5500 Minor 5400 Minor
5488 4/11 Oct high 5380 Minor
5459 12 Oct high 5370 100 HMA
5440 (76.4% of 5568/5029) 5050 Minor
5431 Session high 5336 21 Nov low /(23.6% of 5029/5431)

Bias                

The ASX has done as we suspected it might and has headed sharply higher, breaking 5400 and moving on to 5431 before finding any real selling interest. It is not too far away right now, and with the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators looking constructive, the current rally could continue, above 5440 to the next target, seen at 5460 and possibly to 5480. On the downside, dips look likely to hold 5400 but below which would allow a run back to 5370/80.spi

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Mildly bullish

GOLD 1211
Resistance Support
1254 (38.2% of 1337/1203) 1203 18 Nov low
1240 Minor 1200 31 May low
1235 200 HMA / (23.6% of 1337/1203) 1190 16 Feb low
1233 16 Nov high 1181 10 Feb low
1221 Session high 1172 (61.8% of 1046/1375)

Bias

Gold traded sideways within a 1206/20 range on Tuesday leaving the outlook unchanged.

For the time being the support at 1200 remains intact but with the dailies pointing still lower, further declines look to be in store in the days ahead, and a break below 1200 would head towards support levels layered at $10 increments, starting at 1190, down to 1170, so any downside progress, if seen, may be slow. The topside will again find offers at 1220/25 and then again 1230/35 although this is now looking over the horizon unless we see a sharp selloff in the dollar. Staying short is preferred, looking to sell into the 1220 area. SL above 1235.gold

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term: Mildly bearish

SILVER 16.63
Resistance Support
17.40  (38.2% of 18.98/16. 48) 16.51/48 21 Nov low/(61.8% of 13.64/21.13)
17.30 (23.6% of 20.06/16. 48) 16.43 18 Nov low
17.23 16 Nov high 16.23 7 June low
17.04 (23.6% of 18.98/16. 48) 16.00 Minor
16.88 Session high 15.81 1 June low

Bias

Silver traded sideways within a 16.53/88 range on Tuesday leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are still  recovering from having become oversold and further near term consolidation may be in store, but given that the dailies still point lower, Silver appears to be headed eventually, for a test 16.25/00, below which would allow a run towards 15.80 and potentially to 15.40. Short term rallies should again be limited to 16.85, possibly 17.00, which if seen would now appear to be a decent sell area, with a SL placed above 17.30.silver

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term:  Mildly bearish

OIL (WTI) 48.06
Resistance Support
51.50 Minor 47.15 Session low
50.90 25 Oct high 46.70 100 HMA
49.80 (76.4% of 52.19/42.18) 46.44 (38.2% of 42.18/45.49.17) /Monday gap low
49.17 Session high 46.00 100 DMA
48.50 Minor 45.15 18 Nov low

Bias

Having climbed to a high of 49.17, WTI is now sharply lower amid fresh doubts over whether OPEC will be able to reach an agreement at the 30 November meeting, to limit output after Reuters reported that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia have doubts about any proposed output cut aimed at curbing oversupply.

While the dailies remain positive, the 4 hour momentum indicators have now turned sharply lower so a more cautious stance is warranted, but for the time being buying dips towards 47.15/50 is mildly preferred, with a SL placed at around 46.70.  wti

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Mildly bullish


EURUSD: 1.0625
Resistance Support
1.0780 Minor 1.0585/78 Major rising trend support /21 Nov low
1.0758 16 Nov high 1.0568 17 Nov low
1.0740/45 (23.6% of 1.1282/1.0628) /17 Nov high 1.0522 3 Dec 2015 low
1.0695 100 HMA 1.0500 Minor
1.0657 Session high 1.0462 March 2015 low

Bias                                                                                         

€/Usd has traded sideways on Tuesday in choppy fashion but remains pretty much unchanged at the end of the day. The 4 hour indicators still recovering from their previous oversold levels and we could see another bounce towards 1.0650, above which could head on to 1.0680 and possibly back to 1.0700/1.0720. Above this, although unlikely, could then bring about a move towards the 17 Nov high at 1.0745 and even the previous day’s high at 1.0758. The dailies still look negative, although they may be at the point of losing some of their downside momentum. If we do head lower, the support at 1.0580/85 is strong, although a break would open the way to 18 Nov low (1.0568), below which would head towards the Dec 2105 low at 1.0522 and then possibly to the March 2013 low at 1.0461. As before, trading from the short side and selling into near term strength, with a SL above 1.0745 seems to be the plan.  Wednesday could be fairly active once the US get going, so keep stops tight.

24 Hour: Becoming Oversold -Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term: Bearish

Economic data highlights will include:

EU/US Flash Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs,   US Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, House Price Index, New Home Sales, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, FOMC Minutes.

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro


USDJPY: 111.13
Resistance Support
112.57 1 April high 110.50 Minor
112.00 Weekly Cloud Base 110.26 Session low
111.88 28 April high 110.00 Minor
111.44 30 May high 109.80 18 Nov low
111.29/35 (50% pivot of 121.05/98.94)/Session high 109.00 Minor

Bias

US$Jpy took a pause from its recent steep rally and currently sits at close to 11.00, but not too far from the trend high of 111.35. The daily momentum indicators still point higher, so having headed up to a peak of  111.35,  the next minor resistances are seen at 111.45 and at 111.90, with the next Fibo level not seen until 114.20 (61.8% of 121.05/98.94) although that remains over the horizon at this stage. As with the previous session, although the dollar remains strong, the 4 hour momentum indicators are in the process of unwinding their overbought condition and continue to show a degree of bearish divergence, so some caution is warranted and it could end up being another sideways session, at least until the release of the US data/FOMC Minutes. If we do see a profit-taking dip, minor support will arrive at 110.50, at the session low of 110.26 and at 18 Nov low at 109.80, below which, would open the way to 109.00 and even back to the 200 Month MA at 108.30, albeit that this looks unlikely in the near term. Buying dips still seems the longer term plan. It is a Japan holiday, which will impact on interest/liquidity.

24 Hour: Becoming Overbought – Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term:  Bullish

Economic data highlights will include:

Japan Holiday

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2418
Resistance Support
1.2673 11 Nov high 1.2385 Session low
1.2600 Minor 1.2360 Minor
1.2560 Minor 1.2325 Rising trend support
1.2511 Session high/21 Nov high 1.2311 21 Nov low
1.2465 200 HMA 1.2301 18 Nov low

Bias                                                                         

Sterling is under some pressure at the end of Tuesday trade, unable to overcome the 1.2510 minor resistance and has headed back to 1.2400 following some comments coming from the chief Brexit negotiator for the EU parliament, who said that the UK must be completely severed from the EU ahead of the next European Parliament elections, due in May 2019.The 4 hour momentum indicators are now flat, as are the dailies, suggesting a cautious stance is needed ahead of what looks likely to be another choppy session. Above the 1.2510 session high could see Sterling head to the 14 Nov high of 1.2592, and beyond there, towards the mid November high at 1.2673. The downside will now see bids at 1.2360 and then again at various levels down to 1.2300, below which could then see another run towards 1.2245/50.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term:  Neutral

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 1.0114
Resistance Support
1.0255 29 Jan high 1.0080 Minor
1.0223 2 Feb high 1.0067 Session low
1.0193 3 Feb high 1.0050 Minor
1.0150 Minor 0.9993/88 17 Nov low/(23.6% of 0.9548/1.0122)/200 HMA
1.0133 Session high 0.9940 Minor

Bias                                                                                                                                16 Nov

US$Chf has traded sideways on Tuesday, confined to a range of 1.0067/1.0133, leaving the outlook unchanged.The daily momentum indicators remain constructive and hint that we could head towards 1.0200 and possibly to 1.0250 at some stage, although in the shorter term the 4 hour charts suggest that we may need further, near term consolidation. With the weekly charts seemingly picking up steam, we could be in for something much bigger going into 2017, with 1.0325 (Nov 2105 high) now coming into view, above which could see a run towards 1.0700 and feasibly to 1.1380 ((38.2% of 1.8309/0.7080). That is a long way off, and in the meantime on the downside, should we see a dip below the 1.0067 session low, then 1.0050/60 will provide support ahead of 1.0000 and then, further out, 0.9900/10. Buying dips remains preferred.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Bullish

Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7399
Resistance Support
0.7488 (38.2% of 7777/0.7310) 0.7375 Minor
0.7475 200 HMA 0.7361 Session low
0.7450 Minor 0.7335 Weekly cloud base
0.7435 (23.6% of 7777/0.7310) 0.7310 21 Nov low
0.7410/12/17 Weekly cloud top/Session high/18 Nov high 0.7288/84 (76.4% of 0.7144/0.7834)/16 June low

Bias

The Aud has had a solid session in making it up to a high of 0.7412 before drifting back to 0.7400 at the end of the session. Those who sold above 0.7400 should either bring stops to break even or ensure that they are kept in place at 0.7435 as the 4 hour momentum indicators still look positive so we could yet see another topside squeeze. The daily and weekly momentum indicators though, still pointing lower and further downside pressure would seem to be in store in the days ahead, where a break of  minor support at 0.7360 could then head towards 0.7335 and then to 0.7300/10. Under there should find decent buyers at 0.7285, but below which there is little support to be seen until 0.7217 and below that, at 0.7200, although that will be for another day.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies.

Medium Term:  Mildly bearish

Economic data highlights will include:

Construction Work Done, MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator

Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7052
Resistance Support
0.7143/42 14 Nov high/ (38.2% of 0.7400/0.6983) 0.7030 Session low
0.7110 Minor 0.7000 Psychological
0.7090 Minor 0.6983 21 Nov low
0.7080/85  (23.6% of 0.7400/0.6983)/Session high 0.6951 21 July low
0.7060 Minor 0.6933 (50% pivot of 0.7743/0.7485)

Bias

 The Kiwi squeezed up to a high of 0.7085 on Tuesday ahead of a minor dip to finish the US session at 0.7050.The 4 hour momentum indicators have now turned neutral and it could end up being a choppy, sideways session. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the session high, and above there at 0.7100/10, which if seen would seem to be a sell area with a SL placed above 0.7145.On the downside, a break below 0.7000 would quickly head towards 0.6985 and then possibly to 0.6950, below which, decent bids should arrive at 0.6915/35. If we break 0.6890 there is nothing to hold it up until we reach 0.6830 although this seems unlikely to be seen for a while.As with yesterday, in the near term, some consolidation could be in order although I still think the downside will eventually be the direction to concentrate on.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term: Mildly bearish

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd