23 Nov: US$ lower after soft Durable Goods and slightly dovish FOMC Minutes. PMIs in focus. US holiday today.

By | November 23, 2017

 

The US$ fell on Wednesday, after the Durable Goods Orders failed to meet expectations and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report showed a decline in expectations for long-term inflation. This followed on from some earlier comments from Janet Yellen who had sounded uncertain about the future pace of inflation. The FOMC Minutes had a mildly dovish tinge, with several members suggesting that a rate hike should be delayed until data showed inflation was clearly on a path to 2%. A December hike is more or less written in but the timing of the next one is more uncertain and did nothing to assist the US$. In the currency markets, the Yen and Chf, in particular, were in demand as some safe haven demand returned, while Cable had a choppy session, initially falling on the back of the UK Budget outlook – with little in the speech to change the current outlook or to excite traders – before recovering strongly into the end of the US session, to reach a new 5 week high. US stocks are pretty much unchanged from yesterday, and head into the Thanksgiving weekend at close to the new all-time highs, set earlier in the session. WTI hit a new 2 year high during the day and closed nearby at 58.00, with the prospect of further gains ahead, while the metals are higher on the back of the weakness in the dollar but remain within the parameters of their recent range.

With Thursday being Thanksgiving we can probably expect a quiet run into the weekend although the EU Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs are due to be released and could cause a flutter. Ahead of that, the NZ Q3 Retail Sales will be released (exp 0.4% qq) while the other focus for the day will be on the German and UK Q3 GDP (exp 0.8% qq, 2.6% yy (Germany), 0.4% qq, 1.5% yy (UK))  as well as the Minutes from the last ECB Monetary Policy  Meeting. Today’s speakers will include Jordan (SNB) and Praet/Coeure (ECB).

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1819
Res  1.1825  1.1860  1.1880
Sup  1.1790  1.1770  1.1735
USDJPY: 111.21
Res  111.50  111.70  112.00
Sup  111.00  110.60  110.30
GBPUSD: 1.3318
Res  1.3335  1.3375  1.3415
Sup  1.3285  1.3240  1.3210
USDCHF: 0.9819
Res  0.9845  0.9875  0.9915
Sup  0.9800  0.9775  0.9750
AUDUSD: 0.7618
Res  0.7630  0.7650  0.7665
Sup  0.7600  0.7585  0.7565
NZDUSD: 0.6877
Res  0.6890  0.6955  0.6920
Sup  0.6855  0.6820  0.6785
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2595
Res  2600  2605  2610
Sup  2590  2585  2580
DJI: 23487
Res  23550  23600  23700
Sup  23475  23440  23370
ASX SPI: 6004
Res  6015  6025  6045
Sup  5985  5970  5955
XAUUSD: 1292
Res  1295  1300  1305
Sup  1285  1280  1275
XAGUSD: 17.14
Res  17.20  17.30  17.40
Sup  17.00  16.90  16.80
WTI: 57.98
Res  58.05  59.00  60.00
Sup  57.25  56.45  55.75

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