23 Oct: Euro, Sterling heavy, as politics dominate the session. Expect more of the same today.

By | October 23, 2018

 

It has been a mostly risk-off session on Monday, despite the 4% rally in Chinese stocks, with the Euro leading the way lower, after an early rally, due to the tensions within the EU over the proposed Italian budget deficit target for 2019. In its formal response to the EU, the Italian Economy Minister indicated that Italy will stick to its draft budget plan and that the deficit to GDP target for 2019 will remain at 2.4%. The US$ saw some safe haven demand and is generally firm against all the other majors in what has been a fairly quiet session. Sterling also fell, on news that Brexit negotiations with the EU over Northern Ireland remain unresolved and there is some concern over a challenge to the leadership of UK PM, May from within the Conservative party. Elsewhere, US Stocks are mixed, while the metals are slightly lower and WTI is slightly firmer, after a choppy but rangebound session.

There is very little to come from Asia today apart from various RBA speakers, while Europe will also be fairly quiet from an economic perspective, with just the EU PPI and Consumer Confidence to go on. BOE Governor, Mark Carney will be speaking and it will likely be Brexit headlines that continue to maintain the focus of traders. From the US we get the Richmond Fed Mfg Index and the Fed’s Kashkari speaking. All eyes will be turning towards the ECB and the US GDP, due toward the end of the week.

Economic data will include:

RBA speeches: Debelle/Bullock, German PPI, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, EU Preliminary Consumer Confidence, Fed’s Kashkari Speech

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1468
Res  1.1490  1.1520  1.1550
Sup  1.1455  1.1430  1.1400
USDJPY: 112.82
Res  112.90  113.15  113.40
Sup  112.65  112.45  112.25
GBPUSD: 1.2973
Res  1.3000  1.3025  1.3050
Sup  1.2955  1.2920  1.2895
USDCHF: 0.9962
Res  0.9980  1.0010  1.0065
Sup  0.9935  0.9895  0.9860
AUDUSD: 0.7085
Res  0.7100  0.7125  0.7150
Sup  0.7075  0.7060  0.7040
NZDUSD: 0.6554
Res  0.6570  0.6590  0.6610
Sup  0.6540  0.6520  0.6505
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2763
Res  2785  2800  2820
Sup  2755  2745  2725
DJ30.fs: 25372
Res  25500  25600  25720
Sup  25285  25150  24990
SPI200.fs: 5891
Res  5910  5935  5950
Sup  5870  5845  5815
XAUUSD: 1222
Res  1225  1230  1235
Sup  1220  1215  1210.
XAGUSD: 14.56
Res  14.70  14.85  15.00
Sup  14.50  14.40  14.25
WTI.fs: 69.52
Res  69.85  70.45  71.00
Sup  68.45  69.10  67.90