23 Oct: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities

By | October 23, 2017

 

S&P: 2573
Preferred Strategy: The S+P had another record day on Friday, reaching 2574 and looking as though it will head higher if further progress can be made on the tax plan. As before, I prefer not to be involved. For those who do want to trade it, then looking to buy dips seems to be the plan although note that the daily charts do suggest that we are getting close to a topping scenario.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2595 Minor 2560 Friday low
2590 Minor 2550 Minor
2585 Minor 2543 (23.6% of 2445/2560)
2580 Minor 2535 Minor
2574 Friday high  – all-time high 2520 (38.2% of 2420/2574)


DJI: 23274
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23450 Minor 23104 Friday low
23400 Minor 22950 19 Oct low
23350 Minor 22885 17 Oct low
23300 Minor 22777 14 Oct low
23281 Friday high  – all-time high 22679 6 Oct low


ASX SPI: 5892
Preferred Strategy: The ASX cracked 5900 for the first time in 5 months on Friday and looks as though it wants to head higher still although the 4 hour charts are running out of steam so patience may be required. Support now arrives at 5865/45 and buying dips is preferred. Buy ASX SPI @ 5850. SL @ 5815, TP @ 5930.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
5944 1 May high 5865 Minor
5931 3 May high 5845 Friday low /(23.6% of 5625/5908)
5925 Minor 5839 19 Oct low
5913 11 May high 5825 (23.6% of 5625/5908)
5909 Friday high 5815 16 Oct low


XAUUSD: 1281
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains under pressure from the stronger dollar and looks as though it may want to drift lower still although the dailies have little momentum behind them so it could end up being a choppy session. I guess it is possible Gold could find some safe haven demand if the Catalonian situation blows up, so I prefer not to be involved right now. Out f choice I would rather be short, but keep stops tight above 1290 I think.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1315 20 Sept high 1277 19 Oct low/18 Oct low /Friday low
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1275 100 DMA
1306 16 Oct high 1270 Minor
1296 17 Oct high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1291 Friday high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA


XAGUSD: 17.03
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. While the momentum indicators are generally flat, stand aside. I mildly prefer the short side because I think the dollar is building stem for another leg higher, but it is easier to trade through the currency market while the metals look set to remain choppy.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.85 Minor 17.00 Pivot
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.90 Friday low/18 Oct low /(50% of 16.32/17.41)
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.77 (61.8% of 16.32/17.41)
17.46 16 Oct high 16.60 (76.4% of 16.32/17.41)
17.27 Friday high/19 Oct high 16.32 6 Oct low


WTI: 52.03
Preferred Strategy: WTI settled higher as political tensions in Kurdistan continued to disrupt crude supplies offsetting signs of wavering U.S. demand. In the bigger picture, the support/resistance range of 52.55/52.50 remains intact for now but the dailies are hinting that WTI may be about to give a more serious nudge to the long-term trend resistance at 52.55. A break of this would then allow for the long awaited run to 55.00 and possibly on to 60.00 although this remains a long way over the horizon. On the downside, minor support arrives at 51.00 ahead of the more substantial 50.50/00, where the rising trend support now lies. Buy WTI @ 51.00. SL @ 49.90, TP @ 52.50.
24 Hour: Neutral  – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
53.73 9 April high 51.50 Minor
52.83 28 Sept high 50.85 Friday low
52.55 Descending trend resistance/18 Oct high 50.68 14 Oct low
52.37 19 Oct high 50.13 12 Oct low
52.04 Friday high 49.11/07 9 Oct low/6 Oct low