23 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 23, 2019

The picture has not changed a great deal, and after another fairly rangebound session the US$ again looks a little firmer on the short term charts against the Eur, Gbp and Chf but still looks somewhat in the dailies, suggesting that selling US$ rallies may still be the way to go, as suggested by the slightly more constructive look in the short term DXY charts.

On the crosses, Sterling looks heavy today, while the Jpy looks firm although it is doing very little and seems likely to be fairly quiet.

The metals and stock markets are choppy and offer few hints to any directional price action so are best avoided for now

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*Trade of the day: October 23, 2019; 8:03 AM(AET)                         

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1165. SL @ 1.1225, TP @ 1.1000

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1100. SL @ 1.1085, TP @ 1.1200

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6885. SL @ 0.6905, TP @ 0.6780

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6810. SL @ 0.6780, TP @ 0.6880

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EurUsd:  The Euro is a little lower once again on Wednesday and remains very close to the 100 DMA (1.1136), after a relatively quiet session, which may again act as a magnate today given the rather empty calendar. The session  high of 1.1156 and Monday’s trend high of at 1.1179 will provide the initial resistance, although the longer term momentum indicators still suggest that further gains are possible. If so, above 1.1180, the Euro could then head towards the 61.8% Fibo level/200 DMA at 1.1205, which should see plenty of sellers if/when we get there. Above here would run into minor downtrend resistance at 1.1235 and the next Fibo level, seen at 1.1280 (76.4%). On the other hand the short term charts look a little heavy today, and on the downside, the 100 DMA will continue to attract today ahead of the session low of 1.1117, which ties in with the Friday low of 1.1115 and 1.1107 (23.6% of 1.0878/1.1179). Under 1.1100 would open the way to 1.1080 (minor) and to 1.1063 (38.2% of 1.0878/1.1179). Overall, the charts are now mixed although the dailies still suggests buying dips may be the way to go, but with the ongoing issues over EU growth I would not be getting too carried away on the upside, and ahead of Thursday’s ECB Meeting and we may just continue to chop around in a 1.1100/1.1200 range until then.

 

US$Jpy:   has traded a tight 30 point range on Tuesday leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged, and after having topped out at 108.93 last Thursday, US$Jpy currently sits 30bp below the trend high, currently at 108.45. The short term momentum indicators now in neutral but the longer term charts look mildly positive but we need to break above 108.60 (100 HMA), in order to progress towards 108.95/109.05 (100 DMA), above which would then open the way to 109.30/35, which will be strong resistance if/when we get there (1 August high, 61.8% of 112.40/104.45). Further out, we may look towards 109.92 (30 May high) and, above 110.00, to 110.50 (76.4%). On the downside, back below 108.40, minor support will now be seen at 108.25 (21 Oct low), below which would allow for a return to 108.15 (15 Oct low) and to 108.00 (38.2% of 106.48/108.93) and then to 107.87 (23.6% of 104.45/108.93), although this looks unlikely to be seen today. More distant Fibo levels are seen at 107.70 and 107.40 and for Wednesday I am relatively neutral and suspect that 108.15/90 could well cover it once again. Further out, buying dips still seems to be the plan.

 

AudUsd:  The Aud$ rose to a high of 0.6882 on Monday Tuesday but was unable to press on and has since turned a little lower and now sits right on the 100 DMA (0.6858), which is currently providing support. With the longer term charts looking positive we could see another test of the highs, which is likely to remain strong resistance (0.6876/78 (50% of 0.7081/0.6770/Daily cloud top), but above which could then stretch to the 12 September high at 0.6894 and eventually to 0.6925 (61.8% of 0.7081/0.6770). On the downside, back below 0.6850 could then allow a move back towards 0.6830 (23.6% of 0.6670/6879) and to 0.6800 (38.2%).  Below 0.6800, unlikely today, would then look towards 0.6775 (50%) and then to 0.6750 (61.8%). There is no data today, so another tight session may lie ahead. Use 0.6830/80 as a guide.             

 

NzdUsd: The Kiwi traded up to 0.6435 on Tuesday but then gave up those again ahead of some consolidation near 0.6400. As we said previously, NzdUsd carved out a bullish weekly reversal last week, suggesting that further gains may lie ahead, and with the dailies still looking constructive, once above 0.6435 the next target would be at the 12 Sept high, at 0.6450. Above this would then open the way to the 100 DMA at 0.6485 and then possibly to 0.6500, but this seems some way off. On the downside, once back below 0.6400, support will be seen at the Fibo levels of the rise from the 0.6240 16 October low, at 0.6375, 0.6348 at 0.6328 and at 0.6307 although this seems unlikely to be seen today. Look for 0.6430/0.6375 to cover it.

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