23 Sept: Renewed safe haven demand sent stocks lower on Friday. Jpy, Chf higher. US$ mixed. PMIs in focus on Monday.

By | September 23, 2019

Stocks fell on Friday while the US$ was mixed, with safe haven demand for the Jpy and the Chf notable after a Chinese agricultural delegation cancelled a planned goodwill visit to the US agricultural heartland of Montana, which again raised questions on a positive trade outcome. This news also hurt the commodity currencies, with the Aud and Nzd both finishing at the week’s lows as the trade gloom heightened, while Gold headed higher as the need for a safe haven grew. WTI was choppy but pretty much unchanged.

Monday will mostly look to the PMIs for guidance, while Tuesday will see the German IFO Business Climate/ Expectations and some secondary US data (US Case Shiller House Price Index, House Price Index, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Mfg Index), while the RBA Governor Lowe will be speaking, and he will be closely watched for any hint as to the possible timing the next rate cut. Wednesday will feature the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, at which policy is likely to remain on hold following last months 50bp cut, but a dovish outlook should keep the downside pressure on the Kiwi.  Thursday will be the busiest session of the week, with the Q2 GDP (exp 0.8%qq, 2.0%yy)  set to be the main event, while also on the agenda will be the US Wholesale Inventories, Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Pending Home Sales, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity and the weekly Jobless Claim. Friday will look to the US Durable Goods Orders for guidance, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be released. Have a good week.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: Australian CBA Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs, Japan Holiday, EU/US Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Fed’s Williams Speech

Tue: Nikkei Japan  Mfg PMI, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, BuBa Monthly Report, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Orders, RBA’s Lowe Speech, US Case Shiller House Price Index, House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Wed: RBNZ Meeting, NZ Trade Balance, BOJ Minutes, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised, SNB Quarterly Bulletin, US New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change

Thur: German Consumer Confidence, EU Economic Bulletin, US Q2 GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Pending Home Sales, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, Jobless Claims

Fri: Japan Tokyo CPI, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Durable Goods Orders, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Market moves, in brief:                                       

FX: DXY 98.47 (+0.12%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.724% (-3.66%), German 10Y; -0.52% (-2.68%), UK 10Y; +0.548% (-1.53%), Australian 10Y; 1.025% (-4.10%), NZ 10Y; 1.606% (-2.48 %), China 10Y; 3.096% (-0.64%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.59%, S+P; -0.48%, NASDAQ; -0.80%, EUStoxx50; +0.53%, FTSE100; -0.16%, Shanghai Composite; +0.24%,

Metals: Gold $1516 oz (1.19%), Silver $17.96 oz (+0.98%), Copper $2.591 lb (-0.67%), Iron Ore $93.38 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.67%),

Oil: WTI $58.45 pb (-0.26%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1019
Res  1.1045  1.1075  1.1110
Sup  1.0995  1.0960  1.0925
USDJPY: 107.55
Res  107.75  108.00  108.25
Sup  107.50  107.30  107.10
GBPUSD: 1.2469
Res  1.2520  1.2585  1.2645
Sup  1.2435  1.2375  1.2320
USDCHF: 0.9909
Res  0.9935  0.9960  0.9985
Sup  0.9895  0.9875  0.9855
AUDUSD: 0.6763
Res  0.6785  0.6810  0.6835
Sup  0.6750  0.6725  0.6700
NZDUSD: 0.6300
Res  0.6275  0.6300  0.6325
Sup  0.6250  0.6225  0.6200
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2988.28
Res  2995.00  3005.00  3015.00
Sup  2980.00  2970.00  2960.00
DJ30.fs: 26887.00
Res  26960.00  27050.00  27175.00
Sup  26845.00  26750.00  26650.00
SPI200.fs: 6716
Res  6735  6750  6765
Sup  6710  6695  6680
XAUUSD: 1516.54
Res  1525.00  1545.00  1535.00
Sup  1505.00  1495.00  1485.00
XAGUSD: 17.97
Res  18.05  18.25  18.45
Sup  17.80  17.60  17.40
WTI.fs: 58.35
Res  59.25  60.05  60.85
Sup  57.90  57.20  56.40

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