24 Apr: US$, stocks, oil higher as confidence grows on solid reporting season. Australian CPI coming up.

By | April 24, 2019

 

The US$ and stockmarkets both closed higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq surpassing its all-time closing highs, as traders took the hint from a positive wave of corporate earnings, including Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble Co. Further decent reports today could push the indices higher still, while the DXY is coming up against the strong resistance seen at 97.70-80, a break of which could see the dollar accelerate quickly higher.  Note that the Swiss Franc remains under particularly heavy pressure against all the other majors as funds flow out of safe haven assets. The commodity currencies also look heavy ahead of the upcoming Australian CPI, while Cable headed down as Brexit woes continue.

The metals have been under some downside pressure, with Silver in particular catching up with the recent downside momentum in Gold. Oil continues its march higher; up another 1% on Tuesday after Donald Trump put into action his plan to bring Iranian oil exports to zero, by ceasing exemptions on trade sanctions to the likes of China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Italy, Greece, and Turkey, which will expire on May 2.

In terms of data, it was a thin calendar on Tuesday, but of note; US New Home Sales rose to a near 1-1/2-year high in March, boosted by lower mortgage rates and house prices.

Looking ahead, Wednesday will begin with the Australian Q1 CPI reading, which judging by Tuesday’s price action would seem to be that the market are suspecting a poor number, perhaps finally bringing on the prospect of an RBA rate cut after the election, (exp: 0.2%qq, 1.5%y; trimmed mean exp 0.4%qq, 1.7%yy). Europe will look to the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations (exp; Current; 103.6, Expectations; 96.1, Climate; 99.9), the EU Economic Bulletin and the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements. The Bank of Canada will have their monthly interest rate meeting – no change expected – while the US focus will be on the continuing corporate reporting season although traders are also now beginning to look to Friday’s US Q1 GDP outcome. In the meantime, the big hitters reporting their results today will include AT&T, Boeing, Caterpillar, Microsoft, and Facebook. Have a good day.

NB; It is the ANZAC Day holiday tomorrow. I ll be away for the weekend. Back Monday.

Economic data highlights will include:

Wed: Australian CPI, Japan All Industry Activity Index, Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, EU Economic Bulletin, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change,

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.58 (+0.31%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.569% (-0.78%), German 10Y; 0.042% (+84.4%), UK 10Y; 1.223% (+2.22%), Australian 10Y; 1.905% (-2.79%), NZ 10Y; 1.960% (-1.01%), China 10Y; 3.422% (+0.21%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.47%, S+P; ++0.88%, NASDAQ; +1.11%, EUStoxx50; -0.09%, FTSE100; +0.85%, Shanghai Composite; -0.51%,

Metals: Gold $1272 oz (-0.21%), Silver $14.84 oz (-1.13 %), Copper $2.894 lb (-0.33%), Iron Ore $93.29 per tonne (+0.10%),

Oil: WTI $66.28 pb (+0.96%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1223
Res  1.1240  1.1260  1.1280
Sup  1.1195  1.1175  1.1150
USDJPY: 111.88
Res  112.00  112.20  112.40
Sup  111.70  111.50  111.30
GBPUSD: 1.2938
Res  1.2965  1.3010  1.3055
Sup  1.2920  1.2890  1.2855
USDCHF: 1.0202
Res  1.0230  1.0250  1.0270
Sup  1.0180  1.0155  1.0130
AUDUSD: 0.7099
Res  0.7110  0.7130  0.7150
Sup  0.7080  0.7060  0.7040
NZDUSD: 0.6653
Res  0.6670  0.6695  0.6720
Sup  0.6630  0.6605  0.6575
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2937.78
Res  2945.00  2955.00  2965.00
Sup  2925.00  2915.00  2905.00
DJ30.fs: 26646.00
Res  26685.00  26780.00  26850.00
Sup  26550.00  26450.00  26360.00
SPI200.fs: 6329
Res  6340  6360  6380
Sup  6315  6300  6285
XAUUSD: 1271.85
Res  1275.00  1280.00  1285.00
Sup  1265.00  1260.00  1255.00
XAGUSD: 14.83
Res  14.90  15.00  15.10
Sup  14.75  14.65  14.55
WTI.fs: 66.09
Res  66.60  67.00  67.30
Sup  66.00  65.75  65.55