24 Feb: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | February 24, 2017

 

S+P: 2362

The S+P made yet another new high (2367) on Thursday in its never ending “Trump” rally.

Technically, the dailies still point higher, so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue as we head slowly towards 2400. On the downside, the 1 and 4 hour charts now hint at the chance of a slight drift lower. If so, support will be seen at 2350/55 below which further support lies at 2330/35 and then 2320. I would rather not be involved at these levels although the slow squeeze higher looks set to continue and buying dips seems to be the plan. Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2400 Minor 2353 Session low
2390 Minor 2345 20 Feb low
2380 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2370 Minor 2320 14 Feb low
2367 Session high /All time high 2313 13 Feb low

DJI: 20787

After making another all time high of 20815 on Thursday, a  slow move towards 21000 seems to be on the cards and buying near term dips still seems to be the plan.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
21100 Minor 20722 Session low
21000 Minor 20665 22 Feb low
20900 Minor 20601 21 Feb low
20850 Minor 20566 20 Feb low
20815 Session high   /All time high 20505 17 Feb low

ASX SPI: 5748

The ASX has once again traded sideways on Thursday (5730/5769), leaving the outlook unchanged.

Having become stuck within 5730/70 range, something similar could be on the cards today.  The short term momentum indicators are flat, giving no real hint either way, but if we do see a directional move, then on  the topside, above last week’s high of 5778 look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. On the downside, support will again be seen at 5730/25. A break of this could see a run back to 5700, albeit unlikely today. As with yesterday, with the dailies still looking mildly constructive buying dips seems the plan, with a SL placed below 5725.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5814 May 2015 high 5730 Session low
5700 Minor 5727 21 Feb low
5789 9 Jan high 5715 Minor
5778 16 Feb high 5697 14 Feb low
5774 22 Feb high 5675 Minor

GOLD: 1249

Gold was a big winner today, taking advantage of a soft US$ in breaking the resistance at 1245 and heading up to a high of 1251.

Having now broken above the previous resistance the short term momentum indicators are pointing a little higher and further gains towards 1255 and the strong resistance at 1261 seem possible, above which could then see a run towards 1270 and possibly to 1285 at some stage. On the downside, support will now be seen at 1245 (minor) and at the session low of 1236. As before, trading from the long side is mildly preferred but with a SL now placed below 1235.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1286 (76.4% of 1337/1222) 1236 Session low
1270 Minor 1226 21 Feb low
1261 200 DMA 1220 (23.6% of 1122/1251)
1255 (61.8% of 1337/1222) 1210 100 DMA
1251 Session high 1200/1198 100 WMA /2 Feb low

SILVER: 18.18

Silver is a little higher on Thursday but so far unable to overcome the resistance at 18.20.

The short term momentum indicators are now looking more constructive, hinting at further gains, while the dailies also remain mildly positive so we could yet be in for a move beyond 18.20, towards 18.45, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, the initial support will be seen at 18.00/17.90, and again at 17.80/75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is mildly preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 17.90.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.98 10 Nov high 18.00 200 WMA
18.80 Minor 17.90/94 200 DMA  /Session low
18.65 Minor 17.83 21 Feb low
18.45 Descending Trend Resistance 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows
18.20/21 (76.4% of 18.98/15.63)/Session high 17.55 10 Feb low


OIL (WTI): 54.33

Oil has reversed yesterday’s decline and is now at 54.35 having attempted and failed to trade beyond the week’s high of 55.00, topping out today at 54.91

The short term momentum indicators are neutral but if we can overcome the 54.90 area we could head on towards 55.20, beyond which there is not too much to stop it heading 57.00 although this is a long way off at this stage. On the downside, support will be seen at the session low at 53.87 and then at the 22 Feb low at 53.35, at 53.00, and again at 52.70. Below there could see a run back to 52.00/51.70 although this seems unlikely.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
57.00 Minor 53.87 Session low
56.00 Minor 53.26 17 Feb low
55.21 3 Jan high 52.71 16 Feb low
55.00 21 Feb high 52.20 8 Feb low
54.91 Session high 51.70 Minor