24 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 24, 2017


S&P: 2470
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The S+P had another tight session to end the week (2462/75), leaving the outlook unchanged.

With the daily momentum indicators pointing higher, further gains would seem likely in the days ahead although the short term charts are looking a little mixed on Monday so some caution is warranted. A continuation of the squeeze to the topside would not surprise ahead although note that the DJI was unable to follow through to make new highs last week, so personally, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2495 Minor 2462 Friday low
2490 Minor 2457 19 July low
2485 Minor 2447 18 July low
2480 Minor 2444 (23.6% of 2345/2475)
2475 20 July high -All-time high 2425 (38.2% of 2345/2475

DJI: 21518
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Caution is the best plan here after another range trade day on Friday (21450/21588).

Resistance Support
21750 Minor 21450 Friday low
21700 Minor 21415 18 July low
21650 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21626 14 July high – all-time high 21250 Minor
21623 20 July high 21185 (38.2% of 20474/21626)

ASX SPI: 5640
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

The ASX headed lower again on Friday finishing near its lows and once again, sitting close to the recent strong support seen at the 200 DMA.

The index remains in the middle of the recent wide range, mostly covered by the 100 DMA/200 DMA at 5765/5645 respectively. With the momentum indicators giving little hint in either direction I would retain a neutral stance although the dailies may be giving the mildest hint of heading to the downside. If so, 5630 and 5590/00 will provide the support levels to watch. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 5670 and then again at 5700 although I don’t think we see it it back here today.

Resistance Support
5745 4 July high 5640 Friday low /200 DMA
5729 14 July high 5630 Chart Gap
5717 20 July high 5600 18 July low
5700 Friday high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)
5670 100 HMA/200 HMA 5570 Minor

XAUUSD: 1255
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buying dips seems to be the plan, with a tight SL placed now below Friday’s low of 1243.

Gold again traded in sync with the US$ on Friday and took out the 1245/50 resistance in heading up to a high of 1255, where it currently sits.

The daily momentum indicators still seem to point to further gains in the days ahead, where good resistance should now be seen at 1260/65, but a break of which could then see a run towards 1275.

Such a move to the topside would depends on further dollar weakness, and if that fails to materialise then we could see a downside reversal, where support would now be seen at 1240/45 and then again at 1230/35 which should be strong although right now it looks unlikely to be bothered.

Resistance Support
1275 (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1250 Minor
1270 Minor 1243 Friday low
1265 Descending trend resistance 1235 19 July low /20 July low
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1255 28 June high/Friday high 1225 Neckline

XAGUSD: 16.49
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Prefer to buy dips, with a SL now placed under 16.25..

As with Gold, Silver remained firm on Friday, trading up to a high of 16.52, where the Fibo levels is currently preventing further gains.

This would seem to be temporary, and with the dailies pointing higher we could be in for a run towards 16.75 and possibly back towards 16.90/17.05 although not yet I suspect, and much will depend on the dollar.

The downside will again find bids at 16.25 and at 16.10/15 and then below 16.00 at 15.85/95.

Resistance Support
17.08 15 June high 16.25 Rising trend support
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.28 Friday low
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.13 20 July low
16.65 Minor 16.07 18 July low/200 HMA
16.50/52 (38.2% of 18.65/15.18)/Friday high 15.96 17 July low

WTI: 45.57
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish. Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: With the OPEC Meeting  due today, a very cautious stance is required although the momentum does hint to the downside.

WTI fell sharply on Friday and is now back in the middle of its choppy range, and wth the momentum indicators looking mixed, a cautious stance is needed at the beginning of the week.

The dailies have turned neutral suggesting that further gains will be hard to come by, but on the topside, minor resistance will now be seen at 46.20 and at 46.65 ahead of Friday’s high of 47.21, which now looks over the horizon.

On the downside, with the short term momentum indicators pointing lower, Friday’s low of 45.52 could come under imminent pressure, below which could see a run towards 44.95/45.00. Under there could then see a run back to 44.20 and then to 43.65/75. 

Resistance Support
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 45.52 Friday low / (38.2% of 42.03/47.71)
47.71 20 July high 44.96 13 July low
47.18 Friday high 44.20 (61.8% of 42.03/47.71)
46.65 100 HMA 43.63 10 July low
46.20 200 HMA 43.36 (76.4% of 42.03/47.71)