24 Oct: Another mostly quiet session ahead of today’s ECB Meeting. Global Flash PMIs coming up.

By | October 24, 2019

It has been another steady session on Wednesday with the exception of WTI which climbed strongly, by almost 3%, after an after inventories drawdown. The expectation was for a build of 2.2 million barrels in the weekly inventory data, but instead it showed a surprise drawdown of -1.7 million barrels. Elsewhere though it has been quiet, with stocks closing flat after some mixed earning results from the US, while Gold eked out some minor gain as risk sentiment stabilised. In the FX markets, most pairs were very quiet ahead of today’s ECB Meeting although the Aud$ and Kiwi have recovered from the minor losses seen yesterday, underpinned by a slightly more positive risk outlook after the EU said that they would consider the UK’s request for an extension to the Brexit divorce date.

Thursday has potential to see the major moves of the week, with the October Flash global PMIs coming up, to be followed by the EBC monthly meeting, and Mario Draghi’s final Press Conference before Christine Lagarde take over in November. It looks as though the ECB will sit on their hands at this meeting, but I cannot see Draghi being very upbeat about the EU economy so the pressure may remain on the downside, although the PMIs may tell us differently. The US session will have the September Durable Goods Orders (exp -0.8%mm), the New Home Sales (exp -0.7%mm), Kansas Fed Mfg Activity (exp 4) and Jobless Claims (exp 215K)

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: Global Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs, ECB Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, Jobless Claims

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.44 (-0.09%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.763% (-0.24%), German 10Y; -0.395% (-7.00%), UK 10Y; +0.596% (-4.15%), Australian 10Y; 1.113% (-5.56%), NZ 10Y; 1.289% (-3.84 %), China 10Y; 3.228% (+0.79%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.06%, S+P; 0.00%, NASDAQ; +0.07%, EUStoxx50; +0.06%, FTSE100; +0.67%, Shanghai Composite; xxxx%,

Metals: Gold $1493 oz (+0.32%), Silver $17.55 oz (+0.18%), Copper $2.669 lb (+1.37%), Iron Ore $90.45 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.09%),

Oil: WTI $55.80 pb (+2.74%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1130
Res  1.1145  1.1165  1.1185
Sup  1.1115  1.1100  1.1085
USDJPY: 108.68
Res  108.75  109.00  109.20
Sup  108.30  108.00  107.75
GBPUSD: 1.2914
Res  1.2940  1.3010  1.3070
Sup  1.2860  1.2815  1.2770
USDCHF: 0.9904
Res  0.9915  0.9935  0.9955
Sup  0.9885  0.9865  0.9840
AUDUSD: 0.6854
Res  0.6870  0.6885  0.6900
Sup  0.6850  0.6835  0.6820
NZDUSD: 0.6422
Res  0.6435  0.6450  0.6465
Sup  0.6410  0.6395  0.6380
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 3001.53
Res  3010.00  3025.00  3040.00
Sup  2990.00  2975.00  2960.00
DJ30.fs: 26766.50
Res  26835.00  26935.00  27025.00
Sup  26695.00  26595.00  26510.00
SPI200.fs: 6680
Res  6685  6705  6730
Sup  6655  6630  6600
XAUUSD: 1491.34
Res  1495.00  1500.00  1505.00
Sup  1490.00  1485.00  1480.00
XAGUSD: 17.54
Res  17.65  17.75  17.85
Sup  17.45  17.35  17.25
WTI.fs: 55.77
Res  56.25  56.80  57.40
Sup  55.20  54.65  54.10

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