24 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 24, 2019

 

The picture has not changed a great deal again after another quiet session on Wednesday, and the short term momentum indicators are mostly flat, suggesting another quiet day ahead. The longer term charts do suggest that the US$ looks a little heavy against the Aud, Nzd and Gbp, while looking relatively underpinned against the Jpy so buying the crosses (AudJpy, NzdJpy, GbpJpy) may be a plan.

Elsewhere, on the crosses EurChf looks as though it may have some upside momentum.

The metals and stock markets are once again choppy, and offer few hints to any directional price action so are best avoided for now.

If we do see any directional trade today it will come via any surprise from the ECB Meeting – none expected – or from the flash PMIs.

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*Trade of the day: October 24, 2019; 7:43 AM(AET)                         

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1180. SL @ 1.1225, TP @ 1.1000

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1100. SL @ 1.1085, TP @ 1.1200

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6885. SL @ 0.6905, TP @ 0.6780

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6810. SL @ 0.6780, TP @ 0.6880

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EurUsd:  The Euro is steady on Thursday and remains very close to the 100 DMA (1.1134), after a relatively quiet session, and which may again act as a magnate again today if the ECB Meeting turns out to be a non-event, as widely expected. The Tuesday of 1.1156 and Monday’s trend high of at 1.1179 will provide the initial resistance levels, although the longer term momentum indicators still suggest that further gains are possible. If so, above 1.1180, the Euro could then head towards the 61.8% Fibo level/200 DMA at 1.1203, which should see plenty of sellers if/when we get there. Above here would run into minor downtrend resistance at 1.1235 and the next Fibo level, seen at 1.1280 (76.4%). On the other hand the short term charts look flat, and if we do see a turn lower, then on the downside, bids will be seen at the session low of 1.1105. Under 1.1100 would open the way to 1.1080 (minor) and to 1.1063 (38.2% of 1.0878/1.1179). Overall, the charts are mixed although the dailies still suggests buying dips may be the way to go, but with the ongoing issues over EU growth I would not be getting too carried away on the upside, and if today’s ECB Meeting turns out to be a quiet affair, we may just continue to chop around in a 1.1100/1.1200.

 

US$Jpy:   has once again traded a tight 50 point range on Wednesday (108.20/70) leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged. The short term momentum indicators now fairly flat but the longer term charts look mildly positive and we may yet progress  towards 108.93 (trend high) and on to 109.05 (200 DMA), above which would then open the way to 109.30/35, which will be strong resistance if/when we get there (1 August high, 61.8% of 112.40/104.45). Further out, we may look towards 109.92 (30 May high) and, above 110.00, to 110.50 (76.4%). On the downside, back below 108.40, minor support will be seen at 108.25 (21 Oct low), below which would allow for a return to 108.15 (15 Oct low) and to 108.00 (38.2% of 106.48/108.93) and then to 107.87 (23.6% of 104.45/108.93), although this looks unlikely to be seen today. More distant Fibo levels are seen at 107.70 and 107.40 and for Thursday I remain relatively neutral and suspect that 108.25/95 could well cover it once again. Further out, buying dips still seems to be the plan.

 

AudUsd:  The Aud$ looked heavy for much of Wednesday in falling to 0.6832 but after a relatively quiet day it has now recovered, to currently sit, once again, right on top of the 100 DMA, which looks likely to act as a magnate for the coming session. With the longer term charts looking positive we could see another test of the Monday high at 0.6882, which is likely to remain strong resistance (0.6876/78 (50% of 0.7081/0.6770/Daily cloud top), but above which could then stretch to the 12 September high at 0.6894 and eventually to 0.6925 (61.8% of 0.7081/0.6770). On the downside, back below 0.6850 could then allow a move back towards 0.6830 (23.6% of 0.6670/6879) and to 0.6800 (38.2%).  Below 0.6800, unlikely today, would then look towards 0.6775 (50%) and then to 0.6750 (61.8%). The PMIs are due today, so we could see a bit of action, particularly if they surprise to the topside, otherwise another tight session may lie ahead. Use 0.6830/85 as a guide.      

 

NzdUsd: As with the Aud$, the Kiwi looked heavy in Asia yesterday, falling to a low of 0.6385 but it has since recovered its ground to currently sit at 0.6425.As we said previously, NzdUsd carved out a bullish weekly reversal last week, suggesting that further gains may lie ahead, and with the dailies still looking constructive, once above 0.6435 (22 Oct high) the next target would be at the 12 Sept high, at 0.6450. Above this would then open the way to the 100 DMA at 0.6485 and then possibly to 0.6500, but this seems some way off. On the downside, once back below 0.6400, bids would arrive at the 0.6385 low, and then further support will be seen at the Fibo levels of the rise from the 0.6240 16 October low, at 0.6375, 0.6348 at 0.6328 and at 0.6307 although this seems unlikely to be seen today. Look for 0.6450/0.6390 to cover it.

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